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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gpphantom who wrote (55751)	12/1/1999 12:44:00 PM
From: lorrie coey	Respond to of 95453

OK...but do you know the history of ESV? [when was it incorporated?]

To: gpphantom who wrote (55751)	12/1/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

re: NYMEX Crude Futures article. <<"Some people are locking in profits and liquidating some length because they're concerned the comments MAY BE TRUE," said one player. "Otherwise the market would be bullish right now on the inventory data." The American Petroleum Institute and the Department of Energy showed crude stocks 3.5 million barrels and 4.4 million barrels lower last week, respectively, with the DoE's overall national stocks level back below 300 million barrels.>> Once again;we should just let the crude futures speculators do their thing... Do you invest on what "may" be true - from some out of context quote that's hyped by the media who supports those with that 5000:1 vested interest of lower crude prices, or do you stop and rationally think of what choices OPEC really faces ? Lets analyze this rationally. If OPEC were to raise produduction 5% for example, where do you think crude prices would go ? The net back from higher production x lower prices; would be a net loss to OPEC. They are not stupid, they realize this. OPEC members realize higher net revenue with lower production. There is still a strong portion of the market that says there is still a world awash in plentifull supplies of crude oil. ie: Look at Gerorge Clemens latest news release ! OPEC once again, has no choice to make here. The only way they can EVER raise production in the nearterm here; is for there to be a virtual Global outcry for them to do so. In any other scenario - they get punished by crude traders; and they know they will & their netback will be less with increased production. Why would they give away more oil, for less total $ ? Untill crude reaches $30+ on a spike, the world will not be brought to its knees and the naysayers will just say that crude is here because of speculation. It amazes me that those talking down crude want to argue both ends of their story here. First; they argue that there is a huge plentifull supply of oil Globally and in the US. - Now, if they really believed that; why would they think that OPEC would up production here ? Then, since they are shorting crude off of just the "comments" of the "possibilities" of OPEC increasing production; what the hell would they do if OPEC really increased production ? - obviouslly, they would really pour on the coals to the short side... Does everyone really think that OPEC is led by some illiterate 3rd world, rug trading imbecilles ? The real story on OPEC; is that they "finally got it." They finally stuck together and their program finally worked. I think OPEC knows exactly what it is doing here; they really have no choice as I explained earlier. The market reactions off of just mere out of context comments lead to selloffs - OPEC realizes they would be staring $17 Brent in the face with any wavering here... They will wait untill the world is brought to its knees; as that is the ONLY circumstances that the futures traders - who control the price of oil (never forget that fact); would not turn & send crude into an uncontrollable freefall shortside spin... After we see a spike thru $30+ and the world pleads with OPEC; OPEC will announce and implement their price band policy; easing production and prices into a pre-announced band - which will virtually guarantee the soft landing of crude to levels acceptable to all. Price Bands will be the key and are the only way that they can soft land crude prices. OPEC "trial ballooned" the price bands earlier... They know exactly what they were doing then, what they are doing now and what they will do come March 2000 - bank on it. OPEC will set production quotas in a narrow band, allowing some fluctuation to appease individual members and will tie that target production to specific price targets. By doing so; they pre-condition the market to move crude prices in proportion to their compliance to the Price & Supply Band quotas. While Price Bands are not a perfect system; they are the only system whereby OPEC can transition to higher production without an initially severe over reaction to the downside in crude prices being seen. It is a brilliant and workable plan. This time; the story has changed. The market is wrong; as they much too simplistically dismissed OPEC and their ability to adhere to their program. We will see $30+ crude and then the price band announcement - which will be met with open arms; post MArch 2000. Now - thru March; we enter one of the most historic opportunities in Oilpatch history imho, because much, too much of the market has dismissed OPEC here and taken a much, much too simplistic view of how the Crude Oil story will play out.