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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (55897)	12/2/1999 3:26:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Bull; you asked for me to forward the comments from the "source" I've spoken to occassionally fwiw. Spoke to him today; he simply said this: The DOW has 10% max upside through year end to the next qtr; however, it easily has 15%, even 20% downside both technically and fundamentally. The risk vs. reward variables have some "MAJOR" players popping rolaids like ballpark peanuts here... afraid to get off the merry-go-round, but yet fully knowing that if they are not among the first off; they could get killed here. Oilpatch and the price of Crude Oil & OPEC is the after-hours and pre-market meeting "talk of the town" right now - "BUT" - and that "BUT" was greatly emphasized; it will strictly be a follow the leader move, entirely momenteum oriented and all that is needed is "any" catalyst event to either trigger an exit from the overall market - and a cooresponding rush to value; where EVERYONE - quote/unquote - EVERYONE; agrees that the oilpatch will be THE place to be (amazing that they're waiting imho ?). Or - it will take a breakout in the OSX which much occur without the momenteum players initially. Perhaps triggered by a couple of company stock buybacks, major insider buys - something major from OPEC, crude breaking above it's present range etc, but when it does - the momenteum money will flow downhill. - end quote... The "just" of the conversation is that there is an allmost "scary" amount of money both sitting on the sidelines AND in the overall market; that all has the oilpatch as its 1st stop earmarked when the bubble breaks here. - ie: a matter of when and not if... also; he made a comment of some hedge funds that very smartly were heavilly short the oilpatch stocks - while being long the commodity - and guess what ? - they won on both ends of the bet... I got "2" stock ideas that he thinks have nearly $4-$5 in pure short covering when they cover their "Arb" play here. This was one savy play imho. They had - absolutely no resistance to the buyside of the stocks - so they shorted, then went long crude futures since the fundamentals clearly supported it... simple huh ? Maybe we should just pray for DOW 12,000 and wait for the mad rush of profit taking & just get it over with ?