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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (71311)	12/2/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

If the tech sector grows at 20% for 20 years, why that turns out to be a gain of 38x. Say, that would put the Naz at 132,000. Yee-haw! Let's see, 5% elsewhere, that would bring the DOW to just 2.65x or say 29,000. But that's a silly extrapolation on my part. After twenty years of 20% growth, I'm sure the premium on growth tech stocks will at least double, so I'll put that index at 264,000. Wow! That will coincide nicely with my retirement! I think Warren Buffet mentioned in that recent piece that floated by here how in the late 70s and early 80s, people thought that the lousy returns on the stock market would continue forever. Surprise, now it's the opposite (as he also pointed out). I suspect that the 2020 foresight folks will be getting 20-20 hindsight soon enough. <g>

To: BGR who wrote (71311)	12/3/1999 8:49:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

BGR: Required reading for those who envision a consequential contribution to GDP growth from the tech sector includes Dr. Richebacher's excellent analysis of the current (very bogus) GDP numbers. I commend in particular his analysis of the remarkable "contribution" PC sales provide to the fiction (roughly half the supposed annual growth), in spite of a minuscule year-over-year growth of actual PC sales revenues. Can we say "chained dollars" (g) Subtract the supposed growth attributed to PC "chained dollar" sales, and the reported 4% GDP growth (an economy on a roll) is closer to 2% (an economy in recession). Love those government boys for doing their part to keep the party in gear. As an aside, I think this little bit of statistical chicanery will go down in history as one of the very best. Mark Twain sure had it right. (g) Best, Earlie