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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dushyant Narayen who wrote (71329)	12/2/1999 5:41:00 PM
From: BGR	Respond to of 132070

DN, You do not get the point of 90/10. -BGR.

To: Dushyant Narayen who wrote (71329)	12/2/1999 5:49:00 PM
From: DJessen33	Respond to of 132070

If we got a 15% drop on the NAZ, it would only put us back to where we were a month ago. Don't you think we could at least drop back to where we were 2-3 months ago?...<g> DJessen33

To: Dushyant Narayen who wrote (71329)	12/2/1999 6:04:00 PM
From: Jumper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Dushyant: Re >>Paper Chase justified in serious gloating...<< MB should be "gloating" he just never does- so I'll do it for him :) Burke Bio Index up 7.3% on the day top performers INCY +22.1% & MEDX +29.1% (I have 11 of his picks- may have missed some- I actually work for a living in a nation of pro-traders and do not have the time to post as much as PaperChase and other JOTT's) Paper Boys Picks HWP +3.5% QQQ +3.2% (Mrkt Perform) As for Michael and Earlie I bet those two guys could drink Chuzzlewit, BGR, & PaperChase under the table in 10 minutes or less.

To: Dushyant Narayen who wrote (71329)	12/2/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 132070

DN, Keep in mind that most of the Nasdaq stocks are down since I turned bearish. I can't speak for Earlie. And 15-20% will be nothing in this crash. With the index trading at 100 times, a contraction to a normal 20 times pe ratio and the 40% haircut in earnings that are coming, it could get kind of nasty. True, if you just played indices, the big cos. have done well and I would be judged wrong. If you played the stocks on which I recommended puts, and my money management strategy, well, my record in the 90/10 was +135% in 1996, +124% in 1997, +72% last year. This year does not look nearly as good, with my 90/10 up just 21%. But, the year is not over. Best, MB

To: Dushyant Narayen who wrote (71329)	12/3/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

D.N.: I couldn't agree with your observations more. It is absolutely accurate that both MB and I (and a few others) have been far too bearish at far too early a date. Bluntly speaking, 1998 was not a pleasant year at this end, due entirely to a bearish stance. 1999, on the other hand, has been delightful. I guess it comes down to looking at the reasons for the bearishness. I don't think that anybody would disagree that the indexes (as opposed to the broad markets) have floated upward on an historic expansion of PEs, and not on actual or even reported earnings. It takes a bit of time to spot that kind of trend, and even then, one has to decide whether it is a sustainable trend that can or ought to be exploited, or whether it is a risk not worth taking. While not easily done in this mania, an objective perusal of the broad markets suggests that we have been in a "stealth" bear market since April of 1998. It is only the top 80 to 100 stocks that keep the senior indexes looking healthy. One must have been fairly astute to have bought only stocks in that select group (or to have truly rolled the dice in the net stock crap pits) to be substantially ahead over the intervening 19 months, and one would have humped a bucket load of risk while so doing. I prefer to avoid unacceptable levels of risk. One more point. For the vast majority of investors, the last two years have not been profitable. The stealth bear has already inflicted substantial losses. I suspect that he is not about to hibernate. Best, Earlie