Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Frank Coluccio Technology Forum - ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JayPC who wrote (607)	12/3/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1782

If one buys the cable story, then one has to assume that the # of subs will exceed 10M at least. Don't you think the market has already priced this into the valuation? I mean, on a sub basis, the market is giving ATHM a far more aggressive forward valuation than AOL ... rightly so considering their relative maturities. ATHM can double and redouble easily ... AOL is approaching linearity. No one really knows what an ATHM subscriber is worth yet, of course, because neither the service nor the sub base has stabilized enough to assess it, yes? I think the real comparison is that AOL has a massive lead in content ... and ATHM struggles and flails and contradicts itself in that arena. AOL has a strong lead and a powerful brand ... and ATHM is playing a weak game of catchup. The potential greater value of a broadband subscriber is still ... potential ... and in the absence of contentful action by ATHM will remain so ... substantial evidence is still lacking. Thus I see the web-desktop as a content quantum leap ... teleporting into a new dimension ... bypassing AOL by revising the rules of play. AOL has sort of introduced glimmers of desktop features into AOL 5.0 ... and certainly they'll head in that direction ... it matters not whether proactively by vision or reactively by tracking evolving customer expectations. What I'm looking to understand, from the technology POV, is ... does ATHM's infrastructure constitute a compelling performance advantage in this application area? Which I suppose I can figure out by using Reginald's and other beta sites via both dial-up and DSL lines ... and perhaps doing some math after a tracert.

To: JayPC who wrote (607)	12/3/1999 2:53:00 PM
From: Reginald Middleton	Respond to of 1782

Actually, you should value the companies by unique users, at which AOL blows ATHM out of the water in terms of valuation with more than twice the ascribed value per head. As a matter of fact, ATHM is valued below the median of its comp peer group. See the following: Consumer, Commerce and Internet on a Per User Basis Per Unique Visitor Valuation Real Networks AOL Amazon.com AT HOME Units 10,636,000 52,415,000 12,042,000 15,322,000 Market Capitalization (Millions) $11,390 $189,880 $29,730 $23,220 Value per unit $1,071 $3,623 $2,469 $1,515 Value as of: 11/30/99 11/30/99 11/30/99 11/30/99 Median value per user $2,169 Source: NuoMedia.com - Management Commentary nuomedia.com