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Technology Stocks : Frank Coluccio Technology Forum - ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JayPC who wrote (616)	12/3/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1782

Hey, Jay, What Frank is basically saying is that there isn't enough bandwidth in the HFC headends to REALLY bring these broadband features into the home of the people who have subscribed to the service. As I read between the lines, I see that broadband gets a good rap now only because 90% of the users are using it for fast dial-up emulation ... we're in the 10% who use it to stream video. The assertion on the table is that we can't all stream video ... and that the technology itself is inherently oversubscribed the moment it's installed ... relative to the promise ... the vision of broadband. So ... the providers have to walk a thin line in the applications they deploy to the 90% case ... the 10% will always wander off and find Nuomedia or Britany Spears videos in the great ubiquity beyond. Another good point Frank seems to make is that these providers HAVE NO IDEA YET where the inflection point is ... and that it'll all have to come out in the wash. That point was touched on on the ATHM thread ... whereby it was noted that the Excite programmers are on their broadband learning curve ... and judging from www.exciteextreme.com have been for quite a while. These guys are all still trying to figure out what they can offer and what they can't. I'll make a prediction ... just a gut feeling ... that these java desktops have traffic patterns that are right above the capacity of a dial-up and way below sustained media ... video, even audio. I'm guessing the inflection here is 128K - 256K ... and basically very bursty ... not at all sustained ... latency is the key ... pointing up caching ... fewer hops to next resource. Resource volume is not that large ... not relative to media ... although adding media has the same effect as anywhere else. >> what good are the benefits that BB may provide for a virtual desktop or virtual home, if you can take the home or desktop with you, but you can't take the BB? Ha! You prophesy the future. The wireless guys are pursuing pervasive "broadband" with a wild-eyed lustful concentration ... these boys will not be denied. ;-) And may, in fact, cause the cable folks some grief if the MSO weenies Frank referred to don't wake up and smell the roses ... these wireless guys want to offer us pervasive 2mbps.