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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (86164)	12/3/1999 7:47:00 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

William: There are many indicators. One day you try to argue that housing resales are a really big indicator. Next day you downplay a 16% jump in new home sales. If, as seems to be the case, we have 6% annualized GNP growth this quarter, on top of 5.5% last quarter, and signs of a pick-up by the 2nd quarter of next year, and reasons to beleive the consumer will be very active even in the first quarter -- you have something like 6% annual GNP growth amidst a recovery in the world economy. In that environment, rates are like to be heading up.