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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RWS who wrote (56022)	12/3/1999 11:04:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

Seems this guy understands the market pretty well in general, but doesn't follow the energy sector very closely. NG is at seasonal prices and don't reflect possible near term deliverability issues, and oil prices are not unreasonably high given the fundamentals. Stocks prices and earnings estimates don't even come close to reflecting what earnings will be at these prices (the exact opposite of the high techs). Many of the stocks are back at MARCH levels right now. He is also completely ignoring what many (including myself) believe will be a massive sector rotation. This may be because he doesn't realize that the sector is fundamentally undervalued.

To: RWS who wrote (56022)	12/3/1999 11:20:00 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

RWS: Backwardization = bearish? This is precisely what Matt Simmons told us all to expect when shortages become imminent! This is WAR! I'm strapin' on the bandolero's brother. I'm callin' out the SI Drilling Militia. Time grab your keyboard flintlocks and go to the wall. My black hat is squarely in place. My jaw clenched. Time to mortgage the house! Bull

To: RWS who wrote (56022)	12/3/1999 11:21:00 PM
From: Gameboy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

RWS, comments? Gee, is that poor fellow out to lunch. After watching the antics of OPEC, the EIA, the IEA, and big oil the past 22 months I've drawn a few conclusions I'll share. OPEC and/or big oil could take out $30 crude in a heartbeat. I say big oil and OPEC because they are best buddies but, of course, they're not one and the same. Big oil is to a large extent John D's former Standard Oil (isn't it sweet now that Exxon and Mobil have finally reunited?). To my knowledge John D. never drilled an oil well, he collected oil, refined it, and sold it. Of course, now big oil has production but not enough (hence, Shell's comments about how they're sure hoping oil will be $20/barrel next summer or perhaps they'll find some chump willing to sell oil properties based on that premise). My opinion is that the drop in crude was orchestrated by big oil to bail out Asia and stabilize global markets. Easy decision for big oil, because OPEC bore the brunt of the bailout. Oil prices are based on perceived supply and demand. Estimating oil reserves (supply) is like playing a shell game and big oil has complete control over the pea. Read the enforcement rules the EIA has over reserve submissions (a slap on the wrist with a wet noodle for wrong figures - actually, not that severe) or remember back when Billy Sol Estes was playing guess how full my tanks really are. Of course, Billy got caught but big oil, no way. $25 crude has passed the marketing test. No consumer outrage, no runaway inflation, no outcry, no resistance. $30 crude? Maybe. If Alan Greenspan can stabilize the US economy, maybe big oil will be able to take the 'cycle' out of the oil business. I believe that's OPEC's goal and I believe that's big oil's goal. For oilers $20/barrel, good news; $25/barrel, get fat. $30/barrel? The oil cartel will let us know. But your analyst, RWS, one word - clueless.