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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnzhang who wrote (11935)	12/4/1999 6:17:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

John: Strongly encourage you in starting a "handheld" gorilla game patterned after Mike's Front Office game. Will try to add some ideas and contributions from time to time. If you are as diligent as Mike is, then you are looking ahead to a good deal of research, work and thinking. All good. The scope of the game itself is the place to begin IMO. Handhelds range from phones to PDA's to miniscule computers such as the equivalent of laptops on a scale to be held in the palm. There is much flailing around right now on whether people will prefer to carry one comprehensive device or a couple (or more) specialized ones. The jury is out on this and we will probably not know how this will go for a year or two at least. Altho the result will probably be the usual - a mix. Different people will prefer different ways of dealing with mobile access to data and the wireless/internet nexus. So that is a point to consider in choosing the companies you include. And I for one recommend that since the final configuration is up for grabs, that components or elements of handhelds be included. This would include Psion as you suggest, but also Phone.com which is the intellectual force behind WAP. Phone.com is much more than a browser as you probably know. And its acceptance is pervasive - a who's who of companies. Palm Pilot is the quintessential handheld but so are the wireless phones. How to handle the wireless phones is worth some thought. A key question is whether to include broad companies such as 3 Com which has Palm Pilot within it now and the phone equipment suppliers such as Qualcomm. And if so how, with what weight? Good luck. Mike makes monthly reports which reflect considerable analysis on his part. Do you plan to follow that pattern? Good luck. Cha2

To: johnzhang who wrote (11935)	12/4/1999 10:00:00 AM
From: Jill	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Hi John, first want to say I think the handhelds portfolio is a great idea. I'm a bit confused about the range included in your post, however. Qualcomm is definitely selling its handset division, and it's so imminent (Jacobs promised by end of this month) that I'm not sure why they'd be included. I was also a bit confused about the definition of handhelds. I assumed PDA type devices, and maybe later very smart phones that start to include more than voice. However, that hybrid does raise the question: when is a phone a handheld? Palm devices--I just witnessed firsthand recently how people feel about them. I'm consulting for an online medical venture, and everybody there has Palms. What amazes me is how fervent they are. "I LOVE my palm." When I saw myself for the first time how easily the data went from computer to PDA I decided it was time to give up my old trusty casio. Also, I have to suggest including MSFT's windows device even though it's stumbling...or at least look at it, and what it's attempting to do. Major advertising this season, I see. Probably can't ever catch up to PALM. Also, does one include in handhelds those MP3 type devices, where you download music off the internet? They're very popular, probably more among teens and early 20s, but nonetheless, it's a big market, and increasingly so. I guess it comes back to: how does one define handheld? I see it as a device that fits in your hand, stores data, and can pull data off the computer/internet. Just some thoughts... Jill

To: johnzhang who wrote (11935)	12/4/1999 10:21:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

John, Great post! Loved the bold font! Tee hee. :) Unlike Mike Buckley when he set up his Front Office GG portfolio, I'm far away from being an expert in the covered field. I was blown away with your command of the market. You clarified a lot of fuzzy, general (at best) awareness I had. Even if you continue claim that you're not an expert in the field, I'd like to point out that actually adds real value to your game. You're presumably not in the profession and don't have a strong insider context. Because of that, your game will help validate or deny the manual's role for all investors in a way that would not be as credible if you were an insider. Though you say I was an expert when I started the Front Office Gorila Game, I wasn't then and I'm not now. Sure, I did my due diligence (though not to the extent that Stew has done with Gemstar.) But doing due diligence does not make an expert (except in the rare case of Stew.) The success (so far) of my Front Office Gorilla Game adds credence to the gaming process exactly because I'm not an expert. And I suspect the same will be true for your game. I do have two suggstions you might want to mull around. The first is a minor issue -- the title. Since you are including royalty plays it might be confusing to people to see "Gorilla Game" in the title. I fear you will be responding to an awful lot of posts from newcomers over the coming years. One idea for a title would be the Handheld Gorilla and Royalty Game, though I'm not intending to tread on your creativity. Another issue is that the computing world is supposed to evolve into one in which we have a lot of computers, each having its own specialty. I dread the thought as much for the reason that I hate having four remote controls on the coffee table. But the industry does appear to be heading that way, especially for consumers. I think we're going to be wearing some computers on our wrists, using some attached to the dashboards of our cars, etc., etc. That leads up to the possibility that the term, handheld, may be a limitation as the smaller-than-laptop industry evolves, and your game along with it. My second idea is more about substance because it will affect the companies your game invests in as well as your assessment of what your game teaches us long into the future. In general, the purer the plays in the game, the more the outcome of the game can be attributed to the exact market segments in which your game is being played. As an example, if some day in the future Sony becomes a leader in handheld computing by virtue of its dynasty in consumer electronics, would you add the company that is in so many other businesses to your game? Some of the companies you are contemplating in your portfolio present that issue to deal with. Throw all of the above in the trash if you want. Most important, best of luck in your new game. And be sure to beat Cha2's returns in his Telecosm game because my Front Office game sure isn't doing it. :) --Mike Buckley

To: johnzhang who wrote (11935)	12/4/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: Roy Glen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

John, Good start. Here are a few more handheld companies to consider. First, there is NOCOMO, or something very close to that. NTT's mobile company, which is one of the highest market cap stocks in Japan. Everybody wants to do an alliance with these folks, and just about everybody has. Japan is where the action is for next generation cell phones and handhelds. Two interesting application companies are Puma Technology and Extended Systems. Both make synchronization software that enables handhelds and cell phones to synchronize information with desktops and servers. Finally, Symbol Technologies is an interesting play on this theme. They are the leading bar code reader company, and are well positioned to introduce complete handheld solutions into vertical markets. They have recently won a huge contract ($250m) from the Pentagon to introduce mobile technology into the armed forces. Roy

To: johnzhang who wrote (11935)	12/4/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: Curbstone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

When does the gradual sophistication of the SmartCard qualify it for a place at the PDA/Palm table? I can envision at time when all of our PC's will be nothing more than "docking stations" for the SmartCard. All pertinent data, from telephone, MP3, e/voicemail, financial, medical, documents, you name it, will be either stored on, or directly accesible via wireless network and your SmartCard. Docking-stations for the SmartCard will be ubiquitous. AM

To: johnzhang who wrote (11935)	1/8/2000 1:11:00 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

John, << Based on positive feedback to proposal of starting a Handhelds GG (gorilla game) portfolio, I'm here to present candidates for the model portfolio >> Well here I am finally catching up on the G&K thread after a months absence. Your 12/4/99 post # 11936 here is an excellent start to following a worthwhile topic that I am certainly interested in. Good initiative. Perhaps after I've done my catching up homework I can contribute constructively. I'm pleased to see you have included Psion in your model portfolio. I've also snuck a look ahead at the replies to your initial post. Cha2 has suggested that you include "Phone.com which is the intellectual force behind WAP" (which statement most Nokia addicts would disagree with) and concur with this suggestion. I will also comment later on Aloha Mike's Post # 12014 which asks "When does the gradual sophistication of the SmartCard qualify it for a place at the PDA/Palm table?". Reason for this is I have been involved in the sales and marketing of smart cards for the last 10 years which is what got me involved with the mobile wireless telephony industry in the United States back in 1994 which is what initially perked my interest in Qualcomm and CDMA way back then. Sorry for the delay in responding. - Eric -