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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (2584)	12/5/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: Rick Escher	Respond to of 24042

The following was posted on the QCOM thread. Message 12191845 Option Investor> JDSU - JDS Uniphase $251.19 (-14.81)(+52.19)(+13.81) Uniphase Corporation is a fully integrated optical electronics company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets fiber optic telecommunications components and modules and laser subsystems. The Company's telecommunications products include semiconductor lasers, high-speed external modulators, transmitters, fiber Bragg gratings and optical modules for fiber optic networks in the telecommunications and cable television industries. Based in the Silicon Valley, California, they employ approximately 6260 people worldwide. Customers include Lucent, Nortel, Cisco and Ciena. American Express owns 10% of the common shares. "Dear God, please let there be one more company like Intel to invest in, and I promise not to mess it up this time". Here's your big break. JDSU makes the laser modules and pumps (in addition to other components) that split a fiber optic strand into many different, potentially unlimited channels. Effectively they do for light what Intel does for electrons. Their components are critical to the development of optical networks. Here's another incredibly profitable play since Wednesday's dip to $221 - JDSU is up 14% in 2 trading days. Watch the downside with protective stops so you don't lose the profits. Support is still OK at $245-$248; short-term resistance at $262 followed much later at $270-$273. At current levels, we are in the middle of the ascending channel. Volumes, though at or slightly above the ADV have fallen back from levels seen in November, which may indicate a slight consolidation. That wouldn't be a surprise given that the 2:1 split won't occur until December 30 - it's a bit early for a split run and JDSU has come a long way in a hurry. In short, it needs a break. It is still tradable for short-term gains. Just be sure to target shoot in your comfort zone Big news has been a bit sparse with the major news of a split 4 weeks away and earnings about 6 weeks away. But note from Thursday that Dain Rauscher Wessels issued a Strong Buy rating with a price target of $300. That follows Wednesday's reiteration by SoundView of their Buy rating. Note too that JDSU has doubled analyst expectations over the last 6 quarters. Cockroach theory says that where there's one, there are many. With optical equipment so much in demand NT, LU, CSCO and TLAB will keep JDSU hopping. This could also be one for the long-term portfolio or IRA, especially with juicy premiums suitable for writing covered calls. *December strikes expire in 2 weeks* BUY CALL DEC-240 UQD-LH OI=1266 at $21.63 SL=16.75 BUY CALL DEC-250*UQD-LJ OI=2069 at $15.50 SL=12.00 BUY CALL DEC-260 UQD-LL OI=1311 at $11.63 SL= 9.25 BUY CALL JAN-250 UQD-AJ OI= 960 at $31.88 SL=25.00 BUY CALL JAN-260 UQD-AL OI= 617 at $27.75 SL=21.50 Picked on Nov 21st at $213.81 P/E = N/A Change since picked +37.38 52-week high=$273.62 Analysts Ratings 13-13-0-0-0 52-week low =$ 26.31 Last earnings 10/99 est= 0.25 actual= 0.29 surprise= 16% Next earnings 01-24 est= 0.30 versus= 0.14 Average Daily Volume = 2.7 mln Chart = quote.yahoo.com;

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (2584)	12/5/1999 5:51:00 PM
From: Guy Gordon	Respond to of 24042

In the right business, indeed. Semiconductors & Equipment are still a great area to be in. That's been going on for 30 years or more. But photonics is just getting started. I figure maybe 5-8 more years of great growth in semiconductors before it becomes moribund. Photonics and Biotech will be stronger after that.

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (2584)	12/5/1999 7:29:00 PM
From: SKIP PAUL	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

FWIW, If you apply 50% compound growth to both QCOM and JDSU, apply a 50 multiple to year 2005 earnings and use a 10% discount to NPV, JDSU's current fair value is $424 and QCOM's is $1108. I used $4.70 base for QCOM and $1.80 for JDSU.

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (2584)	1/31/2000 11:06:00 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 24042

To all - my wife and I sold all of our JDSU in the past few days. I was hoping to get some input, thoughts, opinions ... because I hope to be back in JDSU at some point in the future. The only reason we sold was because of what I think of as the "Cisco Systems" type dilemma : JDS Uniphase does seem to be in one of the best businesses imaginable right now. That business should continue to grow nicely for a long time no matter what. A lot of institutional investors will probably continue to own JDSU regardless of the share price level. But ... the thing that bugged me was : Just like CSCO, I just could not cope with the valuation level (of JDSU). When I heard that the latest quarter's earnings were (a better than expected) 18 cents a share, I thought : Okay, 18 times 4, allow for some good growth right now, over the remaining nine months of the year ... call it $1.00. So, we are at a price earnings ratio of over 200 ? (I do remember people doing similar calculations with Qualcomm. But, us diehard Qualcomm fanatics would rapidly respond : (Qualcomm) earnings were hugely depressed by the (now sold) infrastructure division, and the (now sold) handset division. AND -- the real growth for Qualcomm starts in about a year, with 1xrtt and HDR stuff ...) Are there similar "if you knew JDSU the way we knew JDSU things" ? (I have NOT had time to read most of the 3000+ posts written since my post #2584). Also, I am sure that the pending acquisitions of both Optical Coating Laboratory and E-TEK Dynamics will be good for JDSU, but I assume that these acquisitions are funded with shares of JDSU. And, even though I do believe that smart managers can pull off the old "1 + 1 = more than 2" with an acquisition, is there some huge amount of anticipation of good things from the mergers ? Also, if there are anti-trust objections to the mergers, is this a big problem, or no big deal ? Thanks in advance. Jon.