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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RFH who wrote (9477)	12/5/1999 5:52:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 18928

Hi RFH, As we've seen in the last couple of weeks, the Idiot Wave (which doesn't know about Y2K) has been rising slightly. This has allowed me to go ahead and have one or two more sells recently in some funds and some stocks. I can't say I mind. Here in the Northlands we learn to keep our gas tanks full all the time when we expect foul weather. I don't mind having my AIM Cash Reserves topped up either. I don't see much foul weather on the horizon myself, but certainly don't mind keeping the AIM tanks full. It's my belief that most Y2K selling has already occurred a couple of months ago. I've just heard of my first Y2K robbery. A fellow on the north side of Milwaukee was robbed of about $15,000 from his home. He had been hoarding cash in case of any Millennium problems. As much as a year ago when asked about some of the "Armegedon" newsletters coming out, I'd said jokingly that I hope those folks that plan on hoarding money have the sense to buy a gun to protect it. Every burgler on the planet probably has his New Years planned at this point. There's going to be some sad Y2K tales told early next year. I expect that some will be told by investors that liquidated their portfolios in fear of what might happen. I think personally that AIM is cautious enough. Essentially all of my mutual fund cash reserves are fully funded. The only exception is my Hong Kong fund and it's nearing its next sell point. On another subject, GSF is actually suffering from its own form of "tax selling" this year. It's down enough that those who expect interest rates to continue to rise in 2000 are selling to take losses. This is what's been taking the fund down in most recent weeks. I can't say I mind buying up their shares either. I've noted that the one R.E.I.T. that I own has finally bottomed out and seems to be starting back up a tiny bit. Maybe GSF will follow. On Wall Street Week this last Friday they talked about the decade of 2000-2010 probably showing only low double digit growth, down from the Roaring Nineties. If that's so, the P/E bulge we are now experiencing will pull back. Even when companies' earnings are growing rapidly, if there's a wide shrinkage of P/E, chances are the stocks will just plateau. During such times, I think I'll be very pleased with my double digit returns in something like a bond fund to pay my monthly bills. (someone asked about GSF's dividend. It's a monthly distribution paying a current $0.90/share/year on a $6+ stock) I think it might be nice to have fresh batteries for the clocks and flashlights in the house and maybe an extra case of beer on hand, but other than that, I'm not planning to do much for the Millennium Bug. I sit on the Public Works board here in my small town and even here they've taken it very seriously and are as prepared as is possible. The local Sheriff told me he's going to have full staff on hand, unlike most New Years. He said that there's probably enough home alarms that might just go off because they have not been checked that it will be nice to have a few extra deputies on hand. It would appear that there could be one whopping big January rally if the fearful all decide to put their $$$ back to work after the first of the new year. I sure don't want to miss that party! Best regards, Tom