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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Jagernauth who wrote (9478)	12/5/1999 12:19:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Y2k selling etc. Personally some of the prices lately are clearly froth where 50% gains per week in some large tech stocks are not uncommon. The question becomes will it get any higher. My best guess is there is going to be cash waiting in the wings after January 1st and the likelyhood of a melt UP is a serious consideration. I don't think there is any reason that some pruning in a portfolio cannot be done in 1999 (particularly to lock in some nice fat capital gains), but the typical December/January pattern of tax loss selling coming around Thanksgiving, drying up into rally, then final dregs of tax loss selling as well as portfolio rebalancing seems to be normal if somewhat exaggerated. Y2k sofar does not seem to have been a big influence. Quite a bit depends on personal tax situation(s) IMHO. I'm more worried about the market getting jawboned down ala the fed and interest rates rising. That said, it is unlikely they will raise rates in front of the liquidity bubble they have opened in front of Jan 1st to make sure there is adequate banking cash for the US economy. I'd expect the fed to dry up that cash post-y2k. In any case, look at your stocks, look at your marginal tax rate(s), look at opportunity cost and run the numbers. Then throw in what you can sleep at night with and you will have your list of buys and sells relatively easily. Good luck. ---- Dave PS, I thought I had a plan set up as of November 1st. The latest rally in some of the issues I own negated that and now I have to rework my assumptions. Good records and tax awareness are fundamental to make sure you are prepared.