Re: My analysis of the murder; what really happened?
I wrote this many months ago. Consider it a work in progress. If I was 100% sure I was right I wouldn't have even started this thread. In fact, I want people to tear this analysis apart. I want people to ask questions or suggest ways we can "prove" or "rule out" certain possibilities.
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1. Was Jovin really planning on working on her thesis that night?
A. Yes, at home
B. Yes, away from home, such as the library
C. Yes, but she later changed her mind
D. No
I argue D: "no". Had she planned to stay home that night she would not have gone home after parking the car prior to dropping off the keys; home would have been her last destination. She also would not have told a friend she would drop books in the lobby for her if she planned to be home. I doubt she was headed to the library because while her route heading north on College St. technically was toward the library, it is roundabout and not commonly used, and it is my understanding she was last seen well past the library. Furthermore, when she was asked once again about her plans by Peter Stein she didn't mention a thing about her thesis or going to the library. And, most telling, she had dropped off her thesis rewrites at her professor's office earlier that afternoon. Also from what I understand, she did have a knapsack, so without knowing the contents I can't totally rule out she might have intended at some point in the night to end up there. Therefore, it is most likely, IMO, she used her thesis as a polite way to excuse herself.
2. If Jovin was not planning to go to the library, where was she going?
A. To meet a friend
B. For a long walk for fresh air
C. For a short-moderate walk for fresh air
D. To the big hockey game
E. To a party
I argue D or E, to catch the end of the hockey game and then to a party. Had she planned to meet a friend, that friend would have spoken up by now, unless, of course, that friend were the killer. Regardless, had she gone to meet a friend, Jovin most likely would have replied "to meet a friend" when asked several times previously about her plans, which she didn't. Perhaps it could be argued that she went to meet a "secret lover", but no one -- classmates, closest friends or parents -- gave the police any hint such a person even existed. Had she secretly planned to see her thesis professor, and was savvy enough to hide that from everyone, then the last thing she would have wanted to do was give any hint to her friends her plans that night had anything to do with her thesis!
As for going for a long walk, given she was wearing hiking boots I suppose that's possible, but for someone who "jogged, played squash, and took step aerobics classes" I'd think she'd have worn sneakers if she had planned to travel four miles, which is how far she would have traveled had she walked to where she was found and then made it home. I think the boots imply any sort of short-moderate walk was incidental to her getting someplace, not an end in itself. Besides, she had told one friend how she was so tired.
As for the hockey game, it ran from 7:30-10pm, and at 9:30 at night it was obviously close to over. If she had a ticket, she most likely would have rushed right over there, perhaps even have driven the university car there. It's also doubtful she would have taken the time to answer her e-mail and leisurely stroll across campus. It is possible, however, that she thought she could walk right in and catch the end without a ticket -- and perhaps revel in a possible celebration. If she had friends who were attending the game it would make such a scenario even somewhat likely.
We know Suzanne passed someone returning from the hockey game early who was en route to a party. Wherever that party was, it was obviously in the opposite direction Suzanne was walking. Were there other parties taking place up ahead? It shouldn't be too hard to figure this out based on what parties were being held and where Suzanne was last seen "walking north on College St".
Perhaps the key to where she really intended to go is in what she was wearing. Did she change her clothes when she went home? We know what she was wearing when she was found, but what was she wearing at the Best Buddies party? There are reports that her wallet was found in her room. What was in it? Was her Yale ID in it? How about all her credit cards and drivers license? How much cash? When was her last ATM withdrawal and how much? What did she buy subsequent to that? We need to figure out what items she most likely removed and compare that to what was found on her.
3. How did Jovin get from where she was last seen to the corner where she was found bleeding?
A. All on foot
B. Foot then car
C. All by car
D. Car then foot
The total distance from Jovin's apartment, down to Phelps Gate, and all the way to the corner of East Rock and Edgehill -- and back -- is more than four miles. As stated earlier, it doesn't seem likely someone who just finished hosting a pizza party and saying how tired they were would plan to talk that far, especially at 9:30 at night wearing boots! We can thus rule out option A; she had to have been driven at some point in her journey.
Had Jovin attended a party or attended the hockey game then most likely others would have seen and recognized her there. Since no one did, we can assume she got into a car somewhere between where she was last seen and where she was going. Because I believe she didn't reach her ultimate destination, I rule out B. The other choices will be discussed a bit later.
4. Did she know the person/people who drove her, and did she get in willingly? Was she stalked?
A. Yes, she knew her attacker, was stalked, and got in willingly B. Yes, she knew her attacker, was stalked, and got in against her will
C. Yes, she knew her attacker, was not stalked, and got in willingly
D. Yes, she knew her attacker, was not stalked, and got in against her will
E. No, she didn't know her attacker - she got in against her will - she was not stalked
I argue E. I find the idea Jovin was stalked to be highly unlikely. She demonstrated twice earlier, at least on that night, she wasn't freely giving out information on where she was going. It's not clear she even knew exactly where she was going-- that she perhaps was planning to walk in the direction of where the "action" was and play it by ear. Therefore, anyone stalking her that night would have had to sit and wait outside her apartment, follow her through various (locked?) university gates, across the Old Campus, and all the way up College before making their move. You can't do this route by car. So if the mythical stalker was on foot, since a car was ultimately needed, how could he possibly have forced someone in his car parked probably a mile away? This eliminates options A and B. [Note: VF reported seeing a well-dressed man with blond hair was a few paces behind Jovin. Not only is this hardly the attire of a stalker/attacker, but the idea of stalking someone who knows you by walking a few paces behind is preposterous. And, again, if this person were truly stalking Jovin from the time she left her apartment, his car would have been more than a mile away!]
If we assume a friend or someone she trusted was randomly passing by, noticed Jovin, stopped, asked her if she needed a ride, she said yes and got in, then we'd also have to believe that person was carrying a knife (or other sharp object) got upset enough at something or other and had the mindset to murder her in cold blood. Also, barring the unlikely event said friend convinced Jovin to just go driving around with him, it would also be logical to assume Jovin would be very alarmed when that person failed to take her to her destination. She'd most likely have demanded that person to turn around or stop, and her guard would be up for any "untoward" moves he might make. The police said there were no defensive wounds. Furthermore, since there was no evidence of sexual assault, we'd have to believe this "friend" simply decided to kill her. Therefore, this whole scenario, options C and D, is ridiculous. This leads to the only logical choice, option E, that Jovin did *not* know her attacker.
5. If Jovin didn't know her attacker, why would she have gotten into a stranger's car?
A. She was tired and needed a ride, and thus got in willingly
B. She was forced in against her will
To believe option A, one would have to believe Jovin not only got tired halfway (or less) on her journey, but that either she had a long way still to go to reach her destination or was in some sort of hurry to get there, and thus was willing to trust a complete stranger rather than taking a short rest or finding someone she knew. Not likely, in my opinion.
We know a knife or similar sharp object was involved, so it's quite possible the same instrument was used to force Jovin into the car. While it's possible to believe a single man could grab a woman and force her into a car at knifepoint, at some point he would have to relinquish his hold in order to get into the driver's seat and drive, as well as then drive-- all the while keeping the victim subdued. Someone as athletic and feisty as Jovin would doubtlessly have put up a fight and had plenty of opportunity to at least try to escape. Therefore, if seems much more likely she was overpowered by more than one person, probably so much so, as in at least three people, that she knew it was pointless to resist.
6. If she was forced in the car, what was her attackers' motivation?
A. Random violence
B. Sexual assault
C. Robbery
Recall it was an abnormally warm night and many people were out and about. It is possible a group of punks was driving around looking to target a Yalie, or anyone not from their neighborhood. I was attacked by five kids on bikes once while jogging on the very same street, College St, at night. I ran through yards and escaped and it never happened again, but the point is these things do happen. However, it seems unlikely in my opinion that punks would target a woman for a random act of violence so I do not believe option A to be the case here.
As for option B, sexual assault, that usually involves either someone who knows the victim and/or usually lone individuals. Regardless, no hint of such as thing was reported. Had a group of men attempted such a thing, there is very good chance they would have succeeded and there would be evidence to that effect. This leaves option C, robbery, as the prime motivation.
Knowing the most likely spot where the abduction took place would give us a better sense of the timeline. We really need to know whether she was walking with or against traffic. Since Jovin was walking north and she ended up further north, it would make much more sense that she would have been walking on the right side of the road, although it's always possible someone heading south might have made a u-turn. If Jovin were heading to the hockey game, it would be helpful to know if she could have gotten in to see the last twenty minutes of the game without a ticket. If not, then perhaps she could have been abducted while simply waited outside by herself. I'm guessing the abduction happened around 9:40.
7. Was Jovin killed in the car or out of the car?
A. Outside the car
B. Inside the car
At this point we've concluded that at least three people have forced Jovin into a car at knifepoint in an effort to rob her. I would guess she was put in the front seat with the knife wielder sitting behind her in the back seat.
We know from earlier reports that Jovin had left her wallet in her room. This obviously would not have sat well with her abductors; not only didn't she probably have much if any cash, but no ATM or credit cards either. There is a distinct possibility the abductors were going to use the money for drugs and perhaps were already somewhat high.
Had the attack taken place outside the car, it would have to have meant that Jovin was either let out of the car or had tried to escape. For there to be no defensive wounds, it would also mean she was caught suddenly and fell to the ground immediately with no chance to resist. For there to be 17 stab wounds, it would then mean the attacker would have to have jumped on top of the victim and continue the attack. It's hard to believe someone this crazed with such "total access" would be able to localize all the wounds to the head and neck.
My guess is the person in the back seat with the knife became incensed and starting stabbing Jovin in the head. Being high and/or the knife being flimsy (recall the broken tip was found in her skull), the attacker struck again and again at the only part of her body he could reach from the back seat. Once she appeared lifeless, to make sure, he slit her throat. This rear attack would also account for why there were no defensive wounds to her hands, nor wounds to her back or arms. It would also account for why there was no blood anywhere but where the victim lay. Thus, option B is the most likely scenario.
At this point, the first thing the attackers would want to do would be to get rid of the body. More than likely they'd want to do this in a neighborhood totally different than their own. They most likely continued to drive north up College (which would now be called Prospect St) and then took a right at the first cross street-- the street that would take them all the way down to Whitney. This street would be East Rock Avenue. Thus, they took a right turn and after one block stopped briefly, and tossed the victim out of the front door. This would account for Jovin's legs just about touching the street with her body over the sidewalk.
- Jeff |
