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To: mact who wrote (2615)12/5/1999 10:27:00 PM
From: Yamakita  Respond to of 6020
 
December 6 ,1999

Stock markets set new global standard

The essence of exchanges is to predict future value in terms of share prices

ATSUSHI SUEMURA
Senior staff writer

Change is transforming the global economy 10 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall as national borders increasingly lose their significance. The change can be summarized as a shift to the stock market as the international standard. Meanwhile the information-technology (IT) revolution, which is moving ahead with explosive power, is a driving force for the move toward the stock standard as a new reality transcending time and space.

Of all economic indicators, stock indexes have staged the most dramatic ascent over the past decade, with the U.S. Dow Jones industrial average, the U.K. FT-SE 100, the German DAX and the French CAC all posting climbs of 200-300%.

In contrast, the performance of the real economy during the same period was unimpressive. Even the U.S. economy, which grew most sharply in the decade, expanded at a rate of only 3% or so annually. Inflation rates were also held down as the aggressive relocation of manufacturing operations in pursuit of cheap labor led to a worldwide product glut. The old industries that underpinned the old economy find themselves under constant pressure for further streamlining.

In the period following the end of the Cold War, the U.S. and Europe adopted an easy-money policy in tandem with a tight fiscal policy. Japan, which is paying for its free ride during the Cold War, added to liquidity by going on a spending spree and holding interest rates at near zero. Excess liquidity on a global scale is fueling the rise of a new economy built on new industries, in particular the Internet-related sector.

This has set an ideal stage for the stock market to become the standard system, the essence of which is predicting future value in the form of stock prices.

While the IT revolution creates new industries, it is also transforming financial markets in fundamental ways. The stock-market function to create value - the self-fulfilling nature of stock prices to change reality - appears to be coming into its own.

Japan is no exception in the rush to the stock-standard system, although it saw stock prices halve in the last decade. Not all is bad news, however. The remarkable run on the stock market of shares in Softbank Corp., once a software wholesaler, signals the arrival of the age of the stock standard in Japan.

Reborn as an investment fund for Internet start-ups, the Tokyo company recently saw its stock-market capitalization top 8 trillion yen to make it fifth on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, passing such heavyweights as Sony Corp.

Its soaring stock price, which cannot be justified by the company's earnings capabilities or cash flow, has made it easier for Softbank to pursue its strategic investments.


Unknown deadline

When reality does not meet expectations, high stock prices are considered to be a bubble. The problem is that no one knows the deadline for companies to produce business results matching market expectations, which is the point of the stock-standard game.

We should realize that Japan has no hope of pulling out of its economic doldrums without adopting the stock-standard system. It should also be noted that, although we may mistakenly think Japan is already playing the stock-standard game on the same terms as the U.S. and Europe, in fact the Japanese economy is still struggling and the infrastructure needed for the market economy is still lacking.




To: mact who wrote (2615)12/5/1999 10:30:00 PM
From: Yamakita  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6020
 
December 6 ,1999

Online music strikes chord with Sony

Group hopes timing right, but Softbank lurks


Shigeo Maruyama is keenly aware that in the brutally competitive world of Internet-related business, being first matters. That's why the president of Sony Music Entertainment (Japan) Inc. announced that his company will begin selling music via the Internet on Dec. 20, making it the first Japanese company to enter the business.

"If we had not moved to start the service, outside companies would have entered the business and shaken the industry," Maruyama said in an interview with The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (See article on Page 19).

But then again, being first out of the gate is no guarantee of winning the race, say industry watchers.

The company faces an uphill battle turning a profit on the business. Pirate Internet sites have already created the notion that music is free on the World Wide Web, so persuading consumers to pay for music off the Internet could be a tough sell.

Sony Music could also face stiff competition from Softbank Corp., which is approaching the market with a different business model.

Starting on the afternoon of Dec. 20, users will be able to point their browsers to bit.sonymusic.co.jp and select songs to download. The company plans to begin with a group of 44 songs. Each song will cost 350 yen ($3.43), payable by credit card or with prepaid cards available at convenience stores. The songs can be downloaded to a computer or to Sony Corp.'s new Memory Stick Walkman that will go on sale Dec. 21.

The new Walkman can be connected to a personal computer and stores data on a memory chip.

"The music service is a first step in Sony's strategy to genuinely start its electronic-commerce business by using its memory-stick technology," said Kazuharu Miura, an analyst for Daiwa Institute of Research.

The Internet already features a number of sites where people can download music. But because of the problems of copyright violations and illegal distribution, most of the music available is largely that of new artists and independent musicians.

Considering Sony Music's vast collection of popular artists and well-defined copyright protection, the company's move represents an important step forward in the evolution of the Internet music-distribution business.

The industry is hardly rejoicing at the news, however. Even within Sony Music some are questioning whether this is really a good idea. "When it takes nearly 20 minutes to download a four minute song, who's going to like doing that?" asked one employee.

Most Japanese Internet users connect to the Web over phone lines that can handle data speeds of no more than 30 kilobits per second. Even when data is compressed so each song is only around 4 megabytes, downloading an entire album would take over two hours.

Given these numbers, it is obvious that distributing music over the Internet is not going to be an immediate financial success. "This business is going to bleed red ink in the beginning," the Sony Music employee said.

Free music

Still, the company could not just sit by and watch as free music sites popped up on the Internet. As the record industry leader, a reluctant Sony Music felt the need to get involved and impress upon consumers that music is not a free commodity, even on the Internet, observers said.

Some think Sony's 350 yen price for a song is too high. "We had presumed the price would be around 200 yen. This is not an attractive price for consumers," said Fumiaki Sato, head of technology research for Deutsche Securities Ltd.

If free sites are the lions at Sony Music's front gate, then the new Net distribution business being developed by Softbank is the wolf lurking out back. Working with Yahoo! Japan Corp. and musician Minoru Mukaiya, Softbank recently established a new company called eS! Music Corp. that intends to offer service from next summer charging just 100 yen to download songs.

"At 100 yen, I can't see how they expect to turn a profit," said Manabu Kondo, manager of planning and promotion at Sony Music.

But according to Softbank President Masayoshi Son, "We can reach 85% of the 15 million Net surfers in Japan." For one thing, Softbank holds a huge stake in Yahoo! Japan, a major Internet portal. In addition, the company is working with Tokyo Electric Power Co., among others, to launch a high-speed network communications service. With a huge potential user base, eS! Music may be able to squeeze out a profit from the sheer scale of its activity.

Unlike Sony Music, eS! Music does not have any artists. It is not yet clear which or how many songs will be available for distribution, but the company is cooperating with the Japan Society for Rights of Authors, Composers and Publishers, the only society in Japan that administers music copyrights.

As investor musician Minoru Mukaiya explained, "You can't get customers to your site if all you have are CDs from one particular record company." The plan is to reach beyond the record companies and appeal directly to the copyright holders to supply their songs, thereby offering a much broader range than Sony Music could.

"From a consumer's viewpoint, they want to download as many songs as they like, no matter what record labels the artists belong to," said Deutsche Securities' Sato. "Alliances among music companies will be necessary to provide a better service."

Business paradigms

It remains to be seen how this battle in business paradigms between Sony and Softbank will play out. The copyright holders who supply the songs will cast the deciding votes. But as of now, with Internet distribution of music still in its infancy, musicians are keeping a wary eye on developments, still unsure how they like the new kids on the block.





To: mact who wrote (2615)12/5/1999 10:35:00 PM
From: Yamakita  Respond to of 6020
 
December 6 ,1999

Net profits?

Different paths, same goal Major electronics makers are staking claims on the Web, trying to coat themselves in the sheen of that magical word: Internet

KAZUNARI YOKOTA
Staff writer



Major Japanese electronics manufacturers have at least one trait in common: They have all become obsessed with the Internet during the last year or so. More of their funds are being sucked into cyberspace without the promise of profit,yet they believe with the faith of the converted that their future hinges on their performance on the World Wide Web.

Fujitsu leads the way among the major Japanese makers, but its rivals are buoyed by the knowledge that this Internet age is just dawning, and anything can happen.

The approach to the Internet among Japan's manufacturers is as varied as the companies themselves. Some, like Sony Corp. and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., look to TV as the window onto the Web, others are investing in virtual cities and trying to lure retailers to hawk their goods there, and still others wait and watch, hoping it's not too late to make their presence felt on the Internet.

Key players include NEC Corp., which is following closely on Fujitsu's heels, and some would say, mimicking its rival in an attempt to keep pace, and Hitachi Ltd., which was late to join the race, announcing that it will start Internet-based services next year.

The pressure to have a presence in cyberspace is partly driven by investors who seem to see alchemic properties in the Internet. Witness the 135% rise in Fujitsu's stock price over the course of 1999.

"Companies have to include the Internet in their business strategies, or their business will be negatively affected," said Kazu Saito, senior analyst at MultiMedia Research Institute.

Said Tatsuya Mizuno, senior credit officer at Moody's Japan: "The current situation is just as it should be at the dawn of Internet business. At the start of any new industry, strong expectations are needed to gather people and money."

NEC announced in its restructuring plan in September that - like Fujitsu - it would place the Internet at the center of its business strategy by expanding its Internet service provider Biglobe, which has 2.7 million users. NEC hopes to attract more than 10 million users by 2002.

"We will concentrate all of our business resources on the Internet," said Koji Nishigaki, president of NEC.

The company announced several alliances with American companies in October. It plans to include Biglobe as part of Intel Corp.'s Intel Online Service, scheduled to start in the first half of 2000. The two companies plan to jointly provide large-scale platforms for developing electronic-business solutions for other companies. NEC also tied up with Hewlett-Packard Co., Oracle Corp. and both of their Japanese subsidiaries to develop and provide Internet solutions. The three Japan-based companies will set up the Internet Business Solution Center to help companies efficiently and effectively use the Internet.

"NEC is actively linking up with U.S. companies to ensure that its services are global, but it is still not up to par right now. It has to make the best use of the alliances when domestic and overseas business is combined in the future," said Mami Indo, senior analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research.

But she added that NEC has yet to differentiate itself from Fujitsu. "The strategy with Biglobe is not that different from the @nifty strategy," she said, referring to Fujitsu's wholly owned Internet service provider.

Said Mizuno of Moody's: "NEC has a strong base in communications, information and semiconductors. It has to create a good business model to make the best use of these."

Trailing Fujitsu's @nifty and NEC's Biglobe in third place among Japanese Internet service providers is So-net, run by Sony Communication Network Corp., a subsidiary of Sony Corp. The provider has become popular with young Japanese women because of the characters - called Post-pets - it uses to deliver e-mail. Users have soared from 390,000 last year to 740,000 this year.

The Sony group is banking on TV to increasingly become a medium for downloading games, music and other software as well as eventually become a common gateway to the Internet. Sony plans to release the home-game machine PlayStation2 in Japan on March 4, 2000, which will be able to download software via a cable connection. The company expects to sell 1 million units of the game in the first two days.

Sega Enterprises Ltd.'s 128-bit home-game system Dreamcast, released in November 1998, was the first game system that could be connected to cyberspace through its modem.

PlayStation2 is to use the standard iEEE 1394 platform, which is expected to make it compatible with most future home-electronics products and personal computers. "We are going to be TV-friendly," said Ken Kutaragi, president of Sony Computer Entertainment Inc.

Sony is targeting 2001 for setting up a large-scale high-speed communication system through cable networks, which are still not very developed in Japan. As home-game machines are connected to televisions, cable connections will be the best communication format, the company believes.

Rival Matsushita is one major maker that has yet to make a clear indication of what its plans for the Internet are. Yet it is too powerful to be ruled out of the race at this early stage.

Saito of MultiMedia Research Institute said: "It is unclear whether Ma-tsushita will use some sort of box or the cellular phone to connect TV to the Internet. But with its brand name, Matsushita is strong enough to change the race in the next two or three years."

Matsushita operates the Hi-ho Internet service provider, which has about 250,000 users. Matsushita also produces a total of about 10 million laptop computers and cell phones a year.

As a home-electronics company, Ma-tsushita is experimenting with hooking all sorts of household appliances up to the Internet. In January, the company opened a test facility for its Home Information Infrastructure concept in Tokyo. The facility demonstrates the company's idea of having refrigerators, microwaves and other appliances online so they can be manipulated from remote sites.

Other rivals include AOL Japan Inc., the subsidiary of America Online Inc., which has been distributing free CD-ROMs to get more Japanese World Wide Web surfers to go online. AOL, the only foreign-affiliated Internet service provider, now has 370,000 users. But it also has the ignominious title of the Internet service provider that is seeing the most defections among its users, according to Nikkei Net Navi, an Internet magazine published by Nikkei BP.

And of course, any discussion of the Internet in Japan would be incomplete without mentioning Softbank Corp. and its high-profile leader Masayoshi Son.

Son, president and chief executive officer of Softbank, is the most aggressive player in the Internet business in Japan. The Softbank group is setting up numerous joint ventures in fields ranging from toys, books and music to auto parts.

Softbank is a force the major manufacturers can't avoid if they want to be successful on the Internet; in the future they will likely either do business together or butt heads.





To: mact who wrote (2615)12/5/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: Yamakita  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6020
 
2001: Japan's Internet odyssey
Extra budget to contain some high-tech projects

KAORU MORISHITA
Staff writer

The government plans an electronic toll-collection system to ease Japan's infamous traffic jams.


It's a party on the Internet, starting New Year's Eve 2000 and lasting the entire year. The host: Japan's government. The point: encourage more people, schools, local governments and companies to get online.

Funding for the New Millennium Gate-year Festival - 300 million yen ($2.9 million) - is included in the government's latest spending plan aimed at both sustaining the economic recovery and enticing the nation into the digital age.

Deliberations on the second supplementary budget for fiscal 1999 worth 6.789 trillion yen begin this week at the current extraordinary session of the Japanese parliament. The government has earmarked 908 billion yen for infrastructure development in information technology and other science technology such as projects involving human-gene analysis and global warming.

Internet age

Japan's move into the Internet age is viewed by many as rather behind the times, compared with other industrialized countries.

The virtual expo will be orchestrated by Taichi Sakaiya, director general of the Economic Planning Agency. Sakaiya said the government expects the year-long festival to trigger an increase in Japan's Internet users from the current 10% of the populace to 30%.

The EPA director has an interesting track record on the symbolic importance of such festivals. Thirty years ago, when he was an official at the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Sakaiya planned Expo '70, held in Osaka, which celebrated the nation's rapid economic growth. Sakaiya said the government aims to "make 2001 the first year for the Internet to gain widespread popularity."

To develop the nation's digital highways, the government plans to spend about 10 billion yen on the upgrading of cable-television facilities and equipment. The Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications intends to distribute the subsidies to more than 100 cable-TV services, enabling them to provide digital broadcasting and Internet access.

In Japan's satellite-broadcasting arena, digital broadcasting is scheduled to start late next year. Conventional terrestrial broadcasting is supposed to go digital by the end of 2010. Cable TV services are urged to be ready for the digital broadcasting, but their limited financial resources are seen as a hurdle to digitization of cable TV services. The ministry expects that high-speed Internet access through digitized cables to be a key infrastructure for networking society.

The supplementary budget spending includes investment to develop geographic information systems jointly between the public and private sector. The government plans to integrate the existing geographic information such as road maps, city-planning maps and aerial photographs in digitized form and make them available for businesses and individuals through the Internet. Such an information system is expected to be an integral part in systems such as the intelligent transport system (ITS) and car navigation.

Electronic tolls

As for ITS-related spending, the government plans to spend 242.5 billion yen to install an electronic toll-collection system at 900 highway toll gates. The system enables drivers to pass toll gates without stopping by charging the fee to the driver through a wireless recognition system. The Ministry of Construction expects that the automatic toll-collection system will enhance the transportation efficiency by reducing traffic congestion.

Of overall supplementary budget spending, 773 billion yen is expected to be set aside to help finance small businesses.

The Posts Ministry plans to spend 500 million yen as a subsidy specifically aimed for research and investment by entrepreneurial companies in Internet-related businesses. The ministry plans to subsidize up to 40 million yen for a company, or up to two-thirds of the company's research-and-development investment.

In order to promote capital investment to entrepreneurial companies, MITI plans to use 36 billion yen to boost the capital of national financial institutions in charge of financing small businesses. The increased capital will be invested in entrepreneurial companies through investment in venture-capital funds.

The government has earmarked 192 billion yen for employment measures including both new subsidies to create jobs in growth industries and a safety net for workers in declining sectors.

The government also plans to create new subsidies for emerging companies in growth sectors to create new jobs. The government intends to provide several million yen each to model companies selected from each prefecture that are emerging in growth sectors and creating new jobs. The companies can use the subsidies for job training, welfare and services for employees.

Major restructuring

The Ministry of Labor plans to create a new subsidy for companies that employ laid-off workers in one-company towns, such as Musashi-Murayama in Tokyo, whose employment had been solely depended on Nissan Motor Co. The town now faces serious unemployment due to factory closure.

The ministry plans to offer the subsidy to several businesses that are carrying out major restructuring. The subsidy will be paid to companies that hire workers from the major businesses' subcontractors or self-employed people whose businesses are affected by factory shutdowns.