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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (12139)	12/6/1999 1:26:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 54805

is it the announcement of a potential merger, or the finalization of a merger that would mark the entry point? In Gemstar's case, I think the entry point, for me, would be down the road, when I can see more clearly how fast the stock is going to go up due to anticipation of better earnings. We are all going to disagree on entry and exit points, but I think we are going to narrow our differences as this discussion progresses. I came home this evening to 32 new posts, and the discussion is getting interesting. No Emperors, please! We have enough terms to describe the companies we are interested in without adding more. Lets try to get rid of this thinking that we have to promote a company to something higher than a King. Kings are good! young Kings, on the way up, can make us one hell of a lot of money! Lets quit trying to appoint Kings to some sort of quasi-gorillahood, and get back to figuring out when to get into them, and which ones we want to get into. As an earlier poster pointed out, price has nothing to do with entry, we are looking at fundamentals when we try to pick the time to buy, and you can be damn sure it will turn out to be just after a major price rise, not before. That price rise will be a part of the conformation that we have made the right decision. Speculators in shiny pebbles will have got in before us, but thats OK, they have also got into companies they have lost their ass on, while we have waited until we have a sure of what we are doing. We can never time perfectly, but we can get damn close, when we look back at it long term. I got into Dell in November of '96 and out on Feb 12th of '99. Take a look at this chart: quicken.excite.com I could say I got in 9 months late, and out two weeks late, but looking back at it now, I am happy as hell with my entry and exit points. I went into this weekend feeling that this board know one hell of a lot about Gorillas, but way to little about Kings. I think we have now started to clear up our thinking on Kings, and will know one hell of a lot more over the next two weeks.

To: Apollo who wrote (12139)	12/6/1999 2:50:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Stan, No, I'm not up this late. Ummm, I am but I just woke up from falling asleep on the sofa and will immediately trot off to bed. About Gemstar's merger, tornado, and entry points ... The merger: Remember that there may not be a merger. The likelihood of the government not allowing it is strong enough that TV Guide and Gemstar have a contingency agreement already in place should the merger be prevented. The tornado: It's expected that Guide Plus+ will be in 2 million homes this year and 5 million next year. Is that the tornado? Entry points: The manual says to buy applications technologies in the bowling alley and enabling technologies at the start of the tornado. As a risk-reducing strategy, many in this folder buy only established gorillas. In reverse order, what is the defining event that would make Gemstar the gorilla? Before you answer that question, remember that a tornado must occur before a gorilla is spawned and a value chain must occur before a tornado forms. I believe I am the only person who has staked a claim on the nature of Gemstar's technology, whether it is an enabler or an app. Which is it? Be sure to look up the definitions in the book because it's a loaded question. :) Notice I gave no answers. It's not because it's a test. It's because I'm going to bed. :) Make it a great week. --Mike Buckley

To: Apollo who wrote (12139)	12/6/1999 6:11:00 AM
From: unclewest	Respond to of 54805

would the merger of Gemstar and TVGuide mark an entry point for Gemstar? I am mixing apples and oranges here, a little bit, since we believe Gemstar is a gorilla in utero, and not a royalty play. Still, would the merger mark an entry for Gemstar, or should we wait til the tornado has formed. And if the tornado, should we buy at the perception of the tornado, or when the tornado actually happened? hi stan, gmst is adding 15-20,000 customers every day. (without tv guide) share price has doubled in 2 months. can you feel the breeze? unclewest