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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (10286)	12/6/1999 9:44:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Wally: Re: "How about if we add add the FED returning to a tightening bias on 21. Dec followed by a rate increase on 2 Feb. 2000 ?(spurred on by early signs of wage inflation - caused by the affects of a number of union contract wage increases kicking in, etc.)...." Sounds reasonable to me. However, one must note that the market does not care at this point. Bond market doing well for now. Re: "That scenario might insert some fear in to this fearless market (i.e., when will the FED stop raising rates.....)" Back in 1994, the market rallied in November onward even though there was one final rate hike in early 1995. The market had seen the economy slowing so it did not care about one more hike. But the economy is not slowing sufficiently here all things considered. We are hot, hot, hot. So I think you are right that the fear of a series of hikes would cause the market concern. But one more hike in a slowing economy would not do much,. Query: We have never seen a NAZ market like this before. Brinker has never seen a market like this in his 20 plus years. We are at record valuations in the large cap NAZ. Sentiment is very high. This is a tech. "mania" as described by Brinker. The Fed. is pouring gas on the fire here with liquidity. We are going into an unprecedented Y2K transition that could affect the economy short term one way or another. Greenspan is biding his time until the end of the year. I smell risk here. The only reward short term is the greater fool theory at work in large cap tech land..