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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (12396)	12/8/1999 4:46:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike. I will agree with you that a little grey area exists. Even the authors vision is currently blurred with the lines of front office, back office convergence in CRM space and what the Internet is doing to the mix. It's a real time game and not as easy to view as what happened to Microsoft, Intel, Oracle and Cisco in their respective gorilla games looking back in retrospect. Kippola, and Moore's reporting on what the 'Valley' thinks certainly has to come from some wealth of knowledge about industry buzz that we don't have daily access to evaluate. The CC from Siebel's last quarter was really enlightening to me when Tom spoke of the win rates in the sales bid encounters. They were higher than ever before and Tom made it sound like they were a little surprised that their competitors were either so out to lunch that they couldn't adjust to win bids against Siebel or that maybe they were doing so well because the buzz for Siebel was so 'hot' that business was being thrown in their direction regardless of the competitors bids. Success breeding success type of scenario. Plenty of 'not much is wrong right now' chatter. I don't know if Oracle has really dropped their SCM initiative or not, but if their focus has switched to CRM - we know we are all waiting. Once again, if a gorilla can actually exist with only 25-30% market share in the CRM space - even if Oracle and SAP do get ramped up with their much delayed products, Siebel has one heck of a lead that grows on a daily basis. In our classic tornado scenario the company just needs to ship the damn product. We know Siebel's got the model T's going out the door left and right. There's a lot of growth left to go and Siebel will not be the only beneficiary of this growth. Oracle is focused on spring or early summer 2000 for their CRM product. SAP is supposed to be coming sooner.... In the meantime, the all important strategic partnership with IBM Global Services adds quite a remarkable sales force for the Siebel products. The partners and alliance list is worth the read. View their site at: siebel.com and be greeted with: Siebel eBusiness Siebel eSales Siebel eMarketing Siebel eService Siebel eChannel We all know the PR that's been drummed around that Fortune selected Siebel as America's fastest growing company. View investor relations to view 1996 to latest quarter financials and acquisition information. siebel.com On 11/18/99 they reported year over year net revenues up 87%, net income up 114%. Quarterly highlights included the IBM partnership, global alliance with Lucent, strategic alliance with Dun & Bradstreet, pre-built SAP back office integration shipped, impressive list of new customers, 2 for 1 stock split and all in all - the quarter was not bad. I guess we can call it what we want to, but for the moment the 'Valley' has a good reason to see the lead currently held by Siebel. BB