To: marc chatman who wrote (56520 ) 12/9/1999 12:01:00 AM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Marc--I quite agree the structure is complex, with different patterns possible---To answer your specific questions 1)maybe a bullish div if we use up time instead of quickly going back down--2)The A might have been the move down to 65 and the B might not end until we now print a bit above 88 (ie the C might not have started yet)--3)Yes a triangle is an Elliott retracment pattern, such that at the end of it, we resume the uptrend in a large C Wave up(The A being the move from 45 to 91ish). I am inclined to doubt that this is what is taking place, but it is certainly permissable under EW---4)Yes, but of course the move above the Sept high might be the C wave and therefore a terminal move once complete---5)Yes, but I would not be anticipating a deep retest more than say half way------BIG PICTURE---Watch the XOI---If it keeps going up from here and prints a new high, then that would be very bullish in my view. On balance the OSX will key off the XOI and the XOI is a simpler chart to read. It also has more of a history...My concern with the XOI is that on a weekly chart basis, I think we need to put in much more time in retracing before another new high-could be several months. If it blasts up from here then my caution was misplaced. On balance, I am marginally bearish--maybe neutral would be more apt. XOI printing a new high in the next 2-3 weeks would surprise me. Am not prepared to be heavily invested in energy in here.(I was in much heavier in March and now only 1/3 of that commitment). I hear all the good news, but am cautious and quite uncertain on the charts. Also, the lack of any bullish MACD divergence on many of the E&P's on this decline concerns me. Ask yourself-with thousands of stocks to choose from, why not pick from those that give off bullish divergences on declines and forget those that don't....better yet, maybe we should all be largely in cash waiting for the inevitable downturn in the broad mkt. Maybe there will be switches to energy, maybe not. Cash to me seems valuable at this juncture. I am not having any fun investing in here and the last 2 months have been stressful. And the broad mkt scares the daylights out of me now as an accident waiting to happen. Maybe Greenspan will finally start to wrestle the money supply down come Jan 1 and down we go to everones's surprise? Who knows, except that this whole investing environment is absurd as I see it.
