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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trading Machine who wrote (35044)	12/11/1999 10:30:00 AM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

This is a very interesting piece showing which sectors should be bought during which months of the year. moneycentral.msn.com and another one moneycentral.msn.com

To: Trading Machine who wrote (35044)	12/11/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Shepler Capital Management: Weekly Report 12/13/99 - 12/17/99 Smoke & Mirrors Rally! In last week's commentary we stated: "...we are now in "sell the rally" mode, and will be looking to exit longs and enter shorts on up spikes like we saw this Friday. With positive seasonality still providing a strong tailwind for this market we would not be entirely amazed if this rally holds up into the new year, but with our indicators flashing loud and clear sell warnings, we do not like the risk/reward of being long at this juncture." No change to our trading systems which remains on a sell signal. The wild intraday volatility and consistently negative NYSE TICK readings this week confirm our position that a top for this rally is very near if not already seen, and that professionals are busily distributing shares to the gullible public. In our opinion, the time for buying dips on this move is gone, and sell the rally mode is the preferred strategy. It was truly a tale of two markets this week, as the tech heavy NASDAQ continued to march higher, while everything else deteriorated. The Dow and S&P 500 did bounce back some this Friday, but the broader market continued in a steep downward spiral. The Dow was up 88 points, and the NASDAQ was up 25 points to another record closing high, yet NYSE new lows outnumbered new highs by a whopping 401 to 90 issues, and NYSE decliners actually outnumber advancers by a margin of 1517 to 1509 (preliminary data). This rally off the 10/19/99 lows is displaying probably the most lopsided and dangerously divergent internals that we have EVER witnessed. Something has to give. The generals keep charging but there are no troops on the horizon to support them. Make no mistake, the generals will get slaughtered, and it will not be a pretty sight for bulls. Next week is expiration week, and typically this has a bullish bias. However, with such an overbought and technically unhealthy market we are not inclined to play the long side here. We may miss out on 1-2% percent of upside, but sometimes you have to be willing to leave a few scraps on the table. With a market as dangerous looking as this one we would rather exit a week or two early than a few days late. Our next cycle turning point date is 12/21 +/- 3 trading days, which happens to coincide with the upcoming Fed meeting on 12/21. This turning point is projected to be a high, so it could be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" on no Fed action. Also, keep in mind that major turning points tend to occur within 1-2 days of options expiration Friday which is 12/17.