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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: swisstrader who wrote (2681)	12/11/1999 10:52:00 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

One reason that Softbank makes so much money for us is that we are all, at least mostly, holding on. If Softbank were a stock like CISCO or EMC or VRTS we would see meaningful earnings and then when the P/E ratio went up to X, we might be frightened by the view from the high place and toss the stock out to relieve the strain. Softbank, like CMGI,SFE, ICGE,and even BRKA, doesn't have meaningful earnings so all we can do is watch the fun as bright idea after bright idea gets launched. I think the recently revealed plan to buy offline companies which are selling cheaply, internetize them, and then sell them as very much more valuable properties is ingenious and delightful. So when is the time to sell Softbank? When we see something better. For me that won't be until after, maybe long after, internet usage has increased to half the population in the countries where 9984 has significant investments. Before that we can say the internet is still in its infancy. Broadband will make a great difference also. Probably I should revise that to "internet usage with broad band has increased to half the population."

To: swisstrader who wrote (2681)	12/11/1999 3:22:00 PM
From: Edwin S. Fujinaka	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

Although one is cautioned to not fall in love with a stock, in Softbank's case perhaps a mild case of infatuation is in order. We should note that the runup in Softbank is not dependent on any one internet stock investment. Although Yahoo (US) currently represents 53% of Softbank's publicly traded portfolio and a combination of Yahoo USA and Yahoo Japan represents 80.13% of Softbank's publicly traded portfolio, the price of the SFTBF (9984) stock has not tracked Yahoo very closely. In fact when Yahoo peaked in early April and subsequently plunged for two months, Softbank was pretty flat for those two months suffering only a mild decline. When Yahoo jumped in early December, SFTBF actually declined into it's current plateau. Even with the recent runup in Yahoo to a new high, SFTBF has done much better. For the year to date, Softbank is up 1068% and Yahoo is up 242%. I believe that this is indicative of the sophistication of the Softbank investors as a group. We all recognize that the value of Softbank is largely in the closely held stocks in the Softbank portfolio. Still, the rapid runup that occurred during November has to make everyone nervous. A "correction " was to be expected and has already happpened (and may still be continuing). The problem for experienced, sophisticated investors is when to get out? My contact in Japan (a broker) actually bailed out near 40,000 Yen. Too bad for him <G>. I understand the instinct. Even Jay (understandably) lightened up a little at some point, but I still like this stock for a long term hold for at least the next two or three years. I suppose there is always the possibility of a total market meltdown which might take Softbank with it, but not many people have devised a way to time these things effectively. Taxes will also dissuade some people from selling or attempting to trade Softbank. I actually have much of my Softbank in IRAs so I could do it without a concern for taxes. Still, I am holding for the long run. Everyone has to make their own decisions based on their own comfort level, but I view Softbank as a keeper.