To: Tony Viola who wrote (93832 ) 12/12/1999 1:07:00 AM From: American Spirit Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
INTC is going to fly. Read this. Friday December 10, 1999 (6:08 pm ET) Looking for an Undervalued Web Infrastructure Play? Try Intel By Megan Graham-Hackett, S&P Semiconductor Analyst NEW YORK, Dec. 10 (Standard & Poor's) - Until now, the fortunes of Intel's (INTC) stock price have been pretty much dictated by three things. Wall Street has always fixated on how successful the company's next-generation microprocessor was expected to be (i.e., getting production of the new chip up to speed). Investors have also focused on end-demand for PCs (strong demand for the new chip would also help Intel hit high-volume production faster, aiding gross margins). And finally, the Street has considered the competitive landscape and its effect on Intel's pricing power for the new chip (also key for profit margins). But things have changed. There's a new Intel, whose fortunes are no longer tied exclusively to the vagaries of the chip marketplace. The company now has a VC (Venture Capital) unit for tech investments. Intel has also created a Web hosting business -- and it's signed up some important customers. If you want to know how important this business is expected to be over the next decade, take a look at how the market's valuing Exodus Communications (EXDS) and other Web service providers. (The ASP, or application service provider, market is forecast to reach $22 billion by 2003, according to Dataquest.) Add to this new offerings in such "hot" areas such as networking (INTC has introduced a network processor) and communications chips, and Intel seems more like an Internet infrastructure play than its peers (after all, what's Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) doing to leverage the Net?) or many other blue-chip technology stalwarts. The company is certainly further ahead than the likes of Compaq (CPQ) and Hewlett-Packard (HWP) in terms of product -- and in its organizational structure, which enables it to move nimbly, quickly and profitably after opportunities. Web strategy Intel is not just latching onto the Next Big Thing. We sat down with senior management roughly four months ago, and were surprised how well thought-out their Web strategy was. INTC called in consultants and developed key metrics to measure their success at each step of development. And, with Intel being one of the original Silicon Valley companies to introduce stock options to all employees, compensation incentives are in place. How big are these businesses expected to be? Intel's President and CEO Craig Barrett sees multi-billion dollar opportunities. Those who scoff at the company's ability to capture a decent market share in these new markets don't recognize that Intel has impressive mindshare at the small/medium size business level. These customers are the most likely to embrace the web-hosting model because of their limited ability to attract and retain technology talent, coupled with the ever-increasing importance and complexity of technology in their businesses. In the area of the network processor and communication chips -- well, Intel's impressive record in production and engineering and development speaks for itself. While we don't believe Intel will dominate these new sectors to the extent it does the microprocessor market, we do believe Intel will prove a meaningful competitor and that even 10% share of these fast-growing markets should prove profitable. Impressive as Intel's Web prospects are, let's not forget the core business. Intel's future as a microprocessor manufacturer still looks pretty impressive. The company should enjoy incremental share gains in the XYZ server market in 2000 and beyond. And demand for servers is increasing rapidly as the Internet build-out continues. (A little known secret is that Intel-based servers are already quite popular with many of the dot.coms of the world.) Selling at just 25 times our 2000 EPS estimate, we believe Intel (ranked , buy) is one of the most undervalued Internet infrastructure plays. 10-Dec-1999 18:08:15 (02420614) Copyright 1999 Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services LLC. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from Standard & Poor's. Email this story to a friend