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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2301)	12/13/1999 11:03:00 PM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Postal money and foreign deposits >>the point you and Paul raise about where the postal savings will go is very interesting. A lot of people are betting it heads towards equities. Others, like Daiwa, think it will head towards bonds. Given the size of the Japanese debt I don't know if I like JGBs for a long haul, short term yes but not long term.<< Nice spectator sports. Obviously I don`t know the answer either, only that if foreigners have been buying J stocks eagerly, it means someone has been selling just as eagerly... When/if they decide to sell will be the real test for the market. Afterall, there are not too many Buy-The-Dippers in Japan ... (that strategy would have run you into the ground in the last 5 years ). Like I said before, if the market happens to be doing good when a lot of those deposits are rolled over, it may attract more or less of the postal funds. I think the question is in terms of degree, as this money still prefers the rock solid reputation and safety afforded by the Post Office. <<<I have heard several times that the most rapidly growing retail bank presence in Japan is Citibank and that non yen deposits have been a strong attraction, along with the better credit. Have you heard anything to confirm or deny that?>>> Very possible. They have top notched service and are perceived as safer than the J banks. Cant provide any numbers to confirm or infirm though. However looking at a foreign exchange chart, non-yen deposits have done horribly in the last year... For ordinary people I think this is a non-issue. Unless you are going to need some foreign currencies to travel, for an individual to hold foreign currency deposits is like buying stocks (i.e. a form of speculation), only you have even less controls on the fundamentals... No? Yours Sincerely, Stephan Gilbert