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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jack bittner who wrote (11629)	12/14/1999 11:08:00 AM
From: Mighty Mizzou	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

perhaps i should drop the lu component of my investment. If you believe NT's own press release pertaining to 90% OC-192 marketshare then I would heed this advice. You dont deserve to be a Lucent shareholder. BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

To: jack bittner who wrote (11629)	12/14/1999 7:40:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Jack, NT has HAD 90% of the OC-192 market both because they make good equipment, but more importantly, because the only alternative was Fujitsu. While NT will likely enjoy leading market share in 192, LU will get a good sized share in 2000. While LU had no competing OC192 product, NT blew past LU in SONET sales in 1999. However, SONET gear is only part of the story. According to Dell'oro (which is now tracking optical) LU actually leads NT in DWDM sales by a small amount (and is not giving ground) and leads NT in SDH gear by a wide amount. Net-net I would expect NT's overall optical sales to grow slightly faster than LU, but not by much. Meanwhile, LU's wireless growth is doubling NT's and leading the industry. Lu's carrier data networking products are growing much faster. LU's softswitch product has about $2B in orders and is 9-12 months ahead of NT. NT's DMS CO switches are shrinking while LU's 5ESS shows 20+% growth. Finally, LU's $3B merchant chip business grew nearly 20% last year vs. industry growth less than 10% - what do you think it will do in 2000 when semiconductor analysts are projecting 20%+ INDUSTRY growth? Finally, why sell the LU component of your investment while it trades at a 50% DISCOUNT to NT and a 90% discount to CSCO given extremely strong business fundamentals for 2000? Granted, I don't think you'll get alot of movement until we get to earnings, but the current price includes an expectation that LU will miss revenue projections of $11.2B because carrier software revenues may shift from DEc to Mar. This means, if LU meets the number it goes up AND if LU doesn't meet the number, everyone will have expected it and shortly there after, everyone will notice that the revenues defered from Dec WILL show up in Mar and the stock will go up anyway. Count me more annoyed than worried. I would be more concerned about your NT, as its current 2000P/E of more than 80 implying alot of institutional investors expect growth WAY above guidance. There are alot of things that can go wrong.