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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (40084)	12/14/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Do you have any idea what the liquidity effects of Y2K will have on the markets later in January when it is all brought back on repo. Seems to me you can reverse the impact of the last few months. I believe, maybe incorrectly, that the liquidity is one of the things that is fueling the market and the retail sector. People "feel" rich. Once that supply is shut down and indeed, reversed, I think you see the opposite in the markets. I think it will be interesting to see personal debt levels and where they are compared to a few months ago. Stocks should drop. Bonds, could go either way. If seen as a safe haven, bonds go higher. If the inflation scare comes home to roost as the retail Xmas season is hot, as are other commodity sectors, they could be hit. Too early to tell for sure, but it does seem to me the more likely way for equities is lower....but that argument could have been made for most of this year and prior years, so it doesn't hold much water with me in the final analysis. Crazy, isn't it? I'm leaning towards a buy here at 93^00 Perhaps, for a bounce. I think we have to re-test the recent lows in the 92 range before it turns now....however, there is strong support in here so you could very well be dead on. A purchase at near 94^24 would have been a great 2 day run. I think you mean a sale. <gg> Scott