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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (71891)	12/15/1999 11:33:00 AM
From: cardcounter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

MB, H-town greetings. I'm short the QQQ at 169 and change (puts too pricey), but I'm concerned about all the "money on the sideline" and the Y2K melt up (ie market runs up some more b/c Y2k is a non event - most of which if already priced in, imo. For October, money market mutuals are taking about $2 for every $1 going into other funds (source: DLJ whore-side research report dated 12-13, ICI data) and total inflows have doubled relative to September , from 10.8 bln to 20.4 bln. OF the 6 trln in mutuals, 25% is in money market. In addition, there is the seasonal slowdown in IPO mania issuances, which will resume mid Jan or so. Throw in the January effect for the hell of it. Also, the absence of any material y2k issues will remove any possible restraints on the market, and money will flow from money market accounts to the equities for another 10-15% "melt up". So it would seem there is a good deal of "money on the sideline" that would fuel this market higher. What's your view? ON the other hand, I've gone short the QQQ because of its astronomical valuation and its severe divergence from tracking the movements of the S&P since the first of Nov. IN addition, the tax benefits of selling in '00 (not too mention the end of the performance-bonus evaluation period for institutional/money managers -- ie the big money is less incentivized to prop up/keep market at these levels), slight concerns about Y2K, and anticipation of such events. I'm not spelling doom and gloom but short term profits in the near term on the short side. I think the markets are fairly well trained in buying the market after any corrections. Again, what's your view?