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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (15739)	12/14/1999 9:40:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Doug, I believe ATM sales in the US are doing very well as numerous previous postings have shown.Even LU ATM sales are up 100% last Q. ( NN up 70% ). That's because CLEC's and ISPs are buying them heavy duty and LU concentrated on that. I gave you Morgan Stanley's report and Arno Penzias' from LU says IP will not be all. Initially ISPs are small and they may have bought the all-router sell pitch. But as soon as things heat up they will find the truth: Here is the truth in a well thought out post from fumble to gbh: ---------------------------------------------------- Message 11076814 To gbh who wrote (13050) From fumble Reply #13057 of 15741 Thursday, August 26, 1999 1:27 PM ET <<The Cerent box, apparently, can seemlessly groom all these traffic types for presentation to the Sonet transport layer.>> Looking at the Cerent spec sheet, it appears to be a statistical multiplexer which allows different types of traffic (voice, data, video) to be stuffed down the same (very big) pipe. If the pipe is big enough, then all of the packets will go through without any conflict and customers will be smiling. I don't know about the economics of big pipes though. It would seem that a 2Gb pipe would cost twice what a 1Gb pipe costs on a per mile basis. If this cost is significant, then there is a benefit in prioritizing traffic down the pipe and charging more for the best QoS (a la ATM) rather than depending on IP 'best efforts' transmission. Right now, massive fiber optic cables may mean there is an oversupply of fiber bandwidth - just waiting for someone to utilize it (I don't know). In the future though, Parkinson's Law will rule - traffic will increase to fill the pipes. Quest's TV advertising -> do you want all of the movies ever made, in all languages, at any time, on your screen? If this was true for a large number of people, it would fill some very big pipes. If the traffic approaches the size of the pipes, then some time, some packets will have to be tossed aside. With IP routing, those packets will just be retransmitted again (with a delay). This will cause lousy voice and video and will not reduce the average traffic (will actually increase the traffic). With ATM routing, connections with higher QoS can be differentiated and priced higher, and those packets will not be tossed aside. The future (ATM vs IP) depends on the ultimate cost per mile of a Gb of fiber cable bandwidth versus the capital cost of the equipment to feed the cable and keep track of the packets and manage things through thick and thin (cable breakage, power failures, software upgrades, etc.) ----------------------- Again all these talk about all-IP is just a selling pitch. For the IPO financiers who will sell you snake oil to make balding hair grow. Carriers know better. That is why France, Canada, Germany ,Switzerland and England Carriers Telcos went with Newbridge. They have been around longer and can separate ATM from IP from Snake Oil much better. In the US it it will take longer . You want examples of US Fads? Think of these. In Schools: a)Centuries-old, proven " Phonics "was thrown out to buy new books teaching " Whole Language ". California took 15 years to before they realized kids didn't learn to speak and ditch out and go back to phonics. b) The New Math: another failure. we are now going back to the old Math. On and on. In the US people are very susceptible to sales pitches. They will pass when the truth Mack Truck hits: like in Downtown Chicago; ION;TELIA, etc etc, TA Message #15739 from Doug at Dec 14 1999 8:34PM Tunica: I have no concern about NN's capabilities in Europe. They have a good name and reputation in Europe and in China. The problems pertain to the USA where hype and the desperation of keeping upto date is more endemic. Under such conditions, Network Owners are apt to follow what the Leaders do. In turn the small Eqpt Firm would be wise to follow the Eqpt leader in so far as trends are concerned. Once again the question of the day is "Is ATM Carrier switch sales growth in the USA increasing". If not, what is replacing it.? Thanks.