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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (9571)	12/15/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

Seven months off per year sounds pretty good! Tom, From my own experience, I find that I sell more in January than anything as that is when I do tax loss selling of the broken ducks that won't fly anymore. This raises cash for the traditional tech fears that appear in Feb/March as "uncertainty" sets in on projections made under the rosy glasses and possible hangover in January. The next spate of buying usually occurs in late June or July when the techs are now holding, but the yearly picture is becoming clearer and the relative bargains appear out of the mess created around the first quarter. Now we slip into the early fall and back to school and the dreaded October timeframe when any run up during the summer is looked at as a profit to lock in. I try to do some selling of mistakes before this gets out of hand around Labor Day. The next period where I am active is the late October to early November to Thanksgiving area where I do portfolio rebalancing (pruning) and reallocate funds from Thanksgiving area toward what will become "must haves" by the institutional investor before the end of the year. December is somewhat tricky as it will stall early except for new cash from 401k's and the like, then drop, then zoom, then drop severely as profits are locked in, then set up for January. This year is a typical year except for the magnitude of the NASDAQ move, but you can see the greed and fear quite clearly there as the prices move 4-5-20% per day in some issues. If you are in the right stocks and can take profits.... So I might get 7 months per year off, but it isn't in any one place. It is relatively easy to set aside 3 weeks at almost any time however. just my $0.02 ---- Dave

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (9571)	12/15/1999 9:20:00 PM
From: fuzzymath	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Yes, staying in cash from Feb-Oct would have worked great over the past 30 years! That's maybe the most incredible observation. I worked with only end of month index values -- so I can't really say if the ideal is to buy in late Sep or early Oct, and I can't really say if holding all the way to the end of January is necessary. That's a future enhancement to the study, I guess. The presumed annual event that doesn't show up at all in the graph is the supposed "summer rally". That was much talked of 10 years ago -- but not so much anymore. Who needs a summer rally when stocks are rising 30% a year, anyway? But, I think the 30% index gains may end. The NASDAQ can't stay disconnected from the broad market and bonds forever (at least, I don't think it can!). Kevin