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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (57148)	12/18/1999 3:11:00 PM
From: Rainier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Razor: I should have read the article more closely -- you're right, they are anticipating an increase in Iraqi production over the next year. The stability in the futures seems even more bullish, given that projection. I do, however, wonder just how quickly they'll be able to increase production. I've read a few articles over the past several months suggesting Iraq's infrastructure is in such horrible shape that they're at max capacity now. I guess it will depend on how quickly they can get parts and equipment into the country (I see from your most recent post the $300MM cap every 6 months may also be lifted). One issue that I haven't seen addressed is Iraq's role in OPEC. Given their attack on Kuwait and war with Saudi, have they been unofficially "drummed out" of the organization? Or have the sanctions made them a non-player? As things return to a state of normalcy in Iraq (at least with respect to oil production/export), I wonder how OPEC plans to handle its black sheep. With all the other members cooperating and making money hand over fist, it's definitely in their best interest to have a coordinated production policy. Or maybe Iraq's rogue nation image will be played up so the threat of increased production keeps non-Opec producers from increasing exploration and production. If we're to believe Lehman's survey showing only a 10% increase in E&P expenditures next year, they've already done a good job of cowing the competition! (BTW, does anyone really believe Lehman? I sure don't, given the capex announcements we've seen from TX, APA, and dozens of minor producers the past few weeks.) Enoungh ramblings for a Saturday morning -- enjoy your weekend. Mike