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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ed who wrote (35690)	12/18/1999 8:55:00 PM
From: stephan boileau	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Windows 2000 will double profits so Msft is to double $ 160 A new value is being put on Msft because of Windows 2000 product release. It is for this reason that it is hitting new highs. The huge volume indicates a very bullish future. Now the question becomes what is this new value. Without Windows 2000 Msft was valued at $ 500 billion. Now with new addition Msft should be valued more. Let's say $ 800 to $900 million since profits will soar. If we divide this new value $ 900 million by 5 billion shares outstanding we get a price of $ 180. Let's say that we are conservative and put the price at $ 160. Now consider this: What is the value you would put on a Msft that has settled court case. Possibly another 40 to 50 points higher or $ 210 to $220. Add to this that the stock is to trade in Hong Kong where 1 billion people live and suddenly you have no more Msft shares to sell. That is let's say only 10% of 1 billion people want to buy 100 shares of Msft you get a total demand of 10 billion shares of Msft stock (100 million people at 100 shares each; this is conservative). Msft only has 5 billion shares outstanding and over 80% of it is not for sale since it is owned by the likes of Gates, Ballmar, employees, long-term holders, etc. That means Demand of 10 billion shares; Supply of 1 billion shares only. It is clearly a supply problem for Msft now. Not enough shares out there. Expect stock for these factors to soar non stop for the next month. Price of $ 160 in january 2000 is not out of question