SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Keep Your Eye On The Ball - Watch List -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: agent99 who wrote (1633)12/19/1999 8:34:00 AM
From: TFF  Respond to of 2802
 
It's amazing. When reporters trash a company they sound like short sellers. When they love the company they sound like promoters. I guess well balanced reporting doesn't sell magazines and newspapers.



To: agent99 who wrote (1633)12/22/1999 5:17:00 PM
From: TFF  Respond to of 2802
 
Internet Direct Marketers InPlay>>>(IWIN,MYPT,NCNT,CGLD,FSHP,YESM)

BEAR, STEARNS & CO. INC. EQUITY RESEARCH
Internet Direct Marketers: Third Quarter Review _____________________________________________________________________
Key Points

*** The online direct marketing and promotions companies (MyPoints, Webstakes, CyberGold, FreeShop, NetCentives, and YesMail) all posted strong results in the third quarter, beating their respective revenue estimates by an average of 47% and beating their loss-per-share estimates by an average of $0.14.

*** The two best performers in terms of top-line performance versus the estimates were MyPoints, with third quarter revenue 117% ahead of our estimate, and Webstakes, which was 56% ahead of our estimate on the top-line.

*** Sequential revenue growth for the group was strong, up an average of 85%. MyPoints was far-and-away the leader in this category with sequential growth of 161%, more than twice that of any other company in the space.

*** We believe Webstakes to be the most undervalued stock in the group. It currently trades at 4.2x its 2000 revenue, which is a 75% discount to the list of comparable companies, and 10.3 times its annualized 3Q99 revenue, which is a 69% discount to the comparables. Based on our view that there is significant upside from current levels, we are reiterating our Buy rating on shares of Webstakes.

*** We also reiterate our Buy rating on MyPoints, which is by far the leader in the space in terms of total revenue and revenue growth. We therefore believe MYPT should trade at a substantial premium to the pack, which implies substantial upside opportunity.

THIRD QUARTER OVERVIEW

The online direct marketing and promotions companies, which include CyberGold (CGLD), FreeShop (FSHP), MyPoints (MYPT - Buy), NetCentives (NCNT), Webstakes (IWIN - Buy), and YesMail (YESM), all reported third quarter results that were better than expected. On average, the companies reported revenue that was 47% ahead of street estimates. The notables, both of which were ahead of the industry average, include MyPoints, with revenue of $7.0 million that exceeded our estimate by 117%, and Webstakes, with revenue of $3.0 million that exceeded our estimate by 56%. The companies cited increased demand for their products as the primary drivers of the strong revenue. In addition, the loss per share for each company in the group was narrower than the First Call estimate, with the average company posting a loss that was $0.14 better than the consensus estimate.



To: agent99 who wrote (1633)12/26/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: TFF  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2802
 
AOL....looks like market finally realizing that AOL is probably headed for some kind of free model for it's pathetic excuse of an internet service. ISP revenues are history. It's market cap lead over YHOO is shrinking by the day.

Probably a great short term short. trading 81's currently



To: agent99 who wrote (1633)12/28/1999 8:02:00 PM
From: TFF  Respond to of 2802
 
Lighter-than-usual trading accounted for much of the day's
price swings, investors said. Some fund managers finished their
buying for the year yesterday, to avoid post-New Year settlements
out of concern transactions will be botched by computer
breakdowns associated with the switch to the year 2000.
Today's trades will be settled on the shortened day on Friday,
the last session of 1999.
`Everyone wants the decks cleared by the 31st because of
Y2K,' said David Bayer, a money manager at Knappenberger Bayer
Growth Advisors in Minnetonka, Minnesota. `The big money did what
it wanted to do yesterday.'



To: agent99 who wrote (1633)1/13/2000 11:14:00 AM
From: TFF  Respond to of 2802
 
Falling through the net?
Economist

ANYBODY who knows anything about the World Wide Web will admit?in private, at least?that Internet shares are overvalued. Even in Buck?s Restaurant, the favourite eatery of Silicon Valley venture capitalists, diners have been buying the latest book displayed by the cash register: ?The Internet Bubble?. Yet the old explanation?that this bubble is the work of foolish individual investors?will no longer do. Increasingly, it is big, sophisticated institutional investors that are pouring their money into shares that Alan Greenspan has described as lottery tickets. And it was mostly institutional selling that sent the shares tumbling this week.

Few of these institutions actually believe that the fundamentals of Internet companies?however favourable?justify current share prices. According to Bill Burnham, a venture-capitalist at Softbank, a Japanese firm, institutional investors decided last summer that they could no longer merely pooh-pooh a market dominated by a whole class of investors they see as clueless. So they chose to prey on them.





The Internet sector had become too large to ignore. And its performance was so good that institutions that did not invest in it delivered poor performance relative to their more adventurous peers. Last summer, low prices gave them the opportunity to get in; pocketing some of the huge capital gains they have earned since then was the main reason for this week?s sell-off.

There is some method in the market?s madness. For instance, online retailers have seen their shares revalued somewhat more sensibly, at least in terms of price-to-revenue ratios. (Over 90% of Internet companies lost money in 1999, so price-to-earnings ratios are rare.) Amazon?s share price has been tumbling, even though the December holiday season saw much more e-shopping than many people had predicted, and it strengthened its position as the leading ?e-tailer?. Investors reacted negatively to Amazon?s admission that it had overstocked its shelves in anticipation of the Christmas rush. On the other hand, they are now paying crazy prices for shares in ?business to business? Internet firms?likely to be the fastest-growing sector on the net in the next few years.

Alberto Vilar, who runs Amerindo, an Internet investment-fund that gained 250% last year, says a sharp correction in Internet share prices is likely in 2000, though probably not until the second quarter. That is because volatility is the name of the game in an emerging technology such as the Internet. Mr Vilar is still extremely bullish about the sector in the long run. One reason is that the movement of institutional money into Internet shares is still in its infancy. A lot of institutional portfolio managers are praying for a correction. The only question is whether, when it comes, they will have the guts to get in, he says. So far, fortune has favoured the brave or, maybe, just the fortunate.



To: agent99 who wrote (1633)1/13/2000 8:36:00 PM
From: TFF  Respond to of 2802
 
E*Commerce Top categories by Net spending
10/31 - 1/2 (in thousands)

Computer hardware $1,205,670
Toys $675,650
Travel $640,254
Computer Software $474,632
Electronics $410,332
Apparel $373,371
Music $252,591
Books $248,095
Videos/DVD $208,563
Home and Garden $191,975



To: agent99 who wrote (1633)3/11/2000 10:58:00 AM
From: TFF  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2802
 
Terabeam article from Seattle PI
Out of AT&T and at the speed of light

New company brings the data in on laser waves

Friday, March 10, 2000

By DAN RICHMAN
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

Dan Hesse, the innovative head of AT&T's Wireless Services in
Bellevue, made some sacrifices yesterday when he ended a 23-year
career at AT&T.

Hesse, 46, has become president and chief executive of TeraBeam
Networks Inc. The privately held, 130-person company uses laser
beams to carry high-speed data streams that give urban businesses
wireless, high-speed Internet access.

The company already is testing in Seattle what it hopes will become an
internationally used technology.

But Hesse says he leaves behind co-workers who are "like family," a
record of innovation -- and considerable wealth, in the form of stock
options that could skyrocket with an intial stock sale when AT&T
spins off its wireless unit, just weeks from now, into a separate,
publicly held company. Analysts say that could be the largest initial
public offering ever.

Why did he do it?

"From an excitement and financial perspective, there couldn't be a
worse time to leave," he said. "I love AT&T. But I passed that
(money) by for the excitement of being able to create a great company
from scratch, with a superb team. I've never seen a technology
breakthrough in telecommunications that's as significant or radical as
what I've seen over at TeraBeam."

Hesse, who holds master's degrees from MIT and Cornell, joined
AT&T in 1977 and served there in a variety of positions, including
domestic and international sales, services, network engineering and
operations, human resources, business development, product
management, and manager of Internet services.

After stepping up to run AT&T Wireless Services in May 1997, he
created the highly successful Digital One Rate plan, which eliminated
roaming and long-distance charges for cell phone users.

"I did everything there is to do in a large company," he said. In doing
so, he became "a brand name in the wireless business," said
independent analyst Jeffrey Kagan.

But in December, Hesse was passed over as the head of AT&T's
Wireless Group, which includes the Wireless Services division he
headed. After that, "many industry watchers knew (his departure) was
just a matter of time," Kagan said.

Hesse joins a growing list of top executives to have left AT&T over the
past two years since C. Michael Armstrong became chairman and chief
executive of the largest American long-distance company. Hesse is
succeeded at AT&T Wireless Services by Mohan Gyani, 48.

When TeraBeam founder and Chairman Greg Amadon first called
Hesse, in January, "I had this curiosity, but I was very skeptical about
what he described," Hesse said.

What Amadon -- who calls himself a serial entrepreneur -- described
was a technology based on free-space optics, broadcasting infrared
light beams carrying Internet data at a rate of gigabits per second.

High-capacity Internet service is widely available among nations and
cities through fiber-optic networks, and within companies through
wire-based local- or wide-area networks. It's the so-called last mile,
between where the fiber-optic line ends and the corporate network
begins, that has proved difficult to bridge.

"From the POP (point of presence, where the fiber optic connection
ends) to the office building, the Information Superhighway turns into a
dirt road," Hesse said.

That's where TeraBeam's technology comes in. Customers receive the
data-bearing light beam through a dish-shaped receiver mounted inside
the office window.

"Essentially, it's fiber-optic technology, but it doesn't use wires and
it's beamed to multiple points," Amadon said.

Once the gap between the end of fiber optic lines and the office is
bridged, "it will open the door for high-definition TV
videoconferencing on every desktop," Hesse predicted. It will allow
"grabbing hunks of video the way you grab Web pages today, having
databases talk to each other, and being able to have servers based
locally, for better control, rather than at remote facilities," Amadon
said.

While last-mile fiber-optic cabling can take three years to lay within a
city, Amadon said his company can deploy its technology in a city
within six weeks. The light beams can be blocked by heavy fog, which
is why mist-shrouded Seattle was chosen as a test market. Blockage
can be minimized by placing cell sites closer together, he said.

"If it works here, it will work anywhere," Hesse said. The company
will guarantee 99.99 percent reliability, he said.

Technologist George Gilder, of Housatonic, Mass., called TeraBeam's
technology "truly revolutionary," saying it "shatters the last-mile
bottleneck into shards of light."

TeraBeam has one paying customer, a Seattle e-commerce concern.
The company has hired top officers for marketing, engineering and
manufacturing and is now focusing on building its service team,
Amadon said. It's "very well financed" and is about to complete
another round of financing, he said, declining to elaborate.

After keeping a low profile here for 30 months, the company will
debut officially at PC Forum in Scottsdale, Ariz., next week. It will
move from small offices near I-5 to 25,000 feet downtown by April 1.

"I initially wanted Dan as a board member, but he got the CEO bid
because of good chemistry and his incredible background," Amadon
said.

Hesse says his plan is to take TeraBeam national and international,
penetrating the top 50 markets worldwide. Business will be good in
Europe as well as here, he said, because the last-mile problem is even
bigger overseas. That's because state-owned telephone companies
have excluded the competition that has improved the American
telecommunications infrastructure. "It is a huge potential market," he
said.

Hesse said the ramp-up, from 130 employees and one customer, will
be "very significant," but he declined to discuss timing. "There's an
awful lot that goes into rolling out a national company from scratch,"
he said.

TeraBeam holds about 10 patents and has a competitive lead of two to
three years with its technology, he estimated.

"There's a hell of a lot you can do to get way ahead" in that much time,
he said. Potential competitors include US West, GTE, Nextlink,
Teligent and WinStar, he said.

Bellevue-based Advanced Radio Telecom Corp. uses a competing
technology, radio signals, to achieve similar results.

"This is not just a technology. It's industry-changing," Hesse said. "I
think this company will be one more thing that puts Seattle on the map,
up there with McCaw (Cellular), Microsoft and Boeing."

When asked what his biggest challenge will be in the new job, Hesse
paused.

"I'd have to say that might be crossing from the Eastside to my Seattle
office on the 520 bridge every day," he said. "I dread it."

P-I reporter Dan Richman can be reached at 206-448-8032



To: agent99 who wrote (1633)3/19/2000 8:00:00 AM
From: TFF  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 2802
 
51 internet Stocks on Hot Seat: Table shows when Pegasus predicts each will run out of cash. Some will be able to raise more money and some will go out of business--



March 2000: PILT, CDNW

April 2000: SCUR

May 2000: PPOD, VERT, MKTW

June 2000: KOOP, INFO, MSCP, Intelligent Life. ISLD, SPLT, VSHP,

July 2000: ITRA, INIT, MYPT, EGGS, MTHR, IMGX, BGST, MAIL

August 2000: CYCH, ATHY, WorldTalk Corp, PMIX, NEWZ

September 2000: EFTD, SPNW, BYND, HLTH

October 2000: EELN, Interactive Pictures, ASKJ, LOIS, PLRX

November 2000:LFMN, SKDS, DSCM, ASFD, NPNT

December 2000:EWBX, NETO, TIXX

January 2001: SALN, AMZN, PPRO

February 2001: CBLT, MLTX, ETYS, KANA, STMP

Source: Pegasus Research International LLC