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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (23799)	12/19/1999 10:08:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

Jay, the question is how many new 300 fab will be built and equipped over the next two years. I doubt that number will be much greater than 10 a year, if at all. I am still bullish on CYMI, but unlike the majority of the thread which argue "when" in 2000 CYMI will reach $100/share, I think it has at best, a chance of reaching about $85 and will be down hill from there, into another cyclical bear in 2001 for the semis. That is a best case scenario, my more rational scenario is for a high of $65 or so, which will be a PE of about 40 to my next year earnings estimates of $1.60 (which is by itself optimistic and above current consensus of $1.31). I realize that the "list" of "prediction" for the timing of $100/share includes me as saying 2001, however, my vote was no $100 for the next two years. Zeev

To: orkrious who wrote (23799)	12/19/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Jay Re <<The 200mm fabs aren't going to be abandoned, at least not for a while. The 300mm fabs are going to be stocked with new equipment, including CYMI's lasers.>> Not if those 200 mm fab were already running at 0.25 like Intel's are. The research paper that you originally were referring to did not mention Cymer for this reason. Again Cymer does not really benefit from the 200 to 300 mm migration per se. They benefit from migration to 0.25 from 0.35 and building more new fabs. I also agree with Zeev that CYMI will not reach $100 per share in this cycle. Mani