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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (9372)	12/20/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 79002

Julian Robertson in Barrons today said that shorting a tech stock in 1999 was like getting run over by a train that is going to derail a mile down the track. I can feel that in my gut, and in my wallet. That people as smart as Julian made the same error makes me feel a little better. Not much, but a little. But I have learned my lesson. I'm going to make it all back next year with my new insights into the market. Since now we know tech stocks only go up, I know where I want to be for 2000. But these guys buying Cisco and AOL shares are the really dumb ones in my opinion. Because there is a much better alternative. Do you realize that you can buy call options that allow you to make 300% even if the stock moves only 40%? I'm selling my Elder Beerman and Clayton Homes and FAB Industries into options on AOL, CSCO and QCOM. Can you imagine how rich I am going to be next year? Enough of buying things for less than they're worth. I want to make money. Yes, this is sarcasm, but I've heard this from quite a few people in the last couple weeks and have been absolutely horrified. Relatives of mine who have employed very conservative investments strategies up to now asking me "what do you think of Qualcom?" And I tell them and they just zone out. Or even worse ask me, "How about Yahoo?" The stake in the heart though is when they say "But Jim, you told me that last year!" I don't know where the top is, but I can smell it from here. (And I know I have said before I can see the top, and have been wrong. But I can see a lot farther than I can smell.) Everybody says you can't time the market, and I agree with that under normal circumstances. And by "timing the market" I don't mean to the day. These are not normal circumstances. We are at an extreme on top of an extreme today in technology stocks.