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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (23820)12/20/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
OT to Zeev re economic outlook,

1. Other than the "generals", the S&P 500 has been in a bear market. ... as has been the case for the rest of the market for the past few years. i.e. Advances regularly get beat by Declines. And Down Volume frequently exceeds Up volume.

There have been a series of rotating bear markets by sector. e.g. Financials and many of the drug stocks this year. At the same time, other sectors have soared. e.g. Chip makers, their equipment makers, communications sector, etc.

The only thing that hasn't been in a bear market has been the major indices.

Point is: there will continue to be winners and losers. Being in the right sectors at the right time will continue to be paramount for investors.

Re budget surplus: No major argument except that the reality is that interest rates are low; IMO, they're headed lower. Inflation is practically nonexistent. And productivity growth remains abnormally strong.

I really believe that we're seeing a transition equivalent to the Industrial Revolution or the Electrification of the industrialized world. Not every company will be a winner; but those that are will do exceptionally well.

JMHO,
Ian.