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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (30532)	12/21/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

Without getting totally involved in technical arguments, the bottom line that I am trying to impress on all Cisco followers is this; 1) Yes IP networking will become an important part of the Carrier network and Enterprise network (it already is) 2) Router players (even one as successful as Cisco) will run into LOT of obstacles and problems trying to crack the Pubic Network market that the traditional vendors like NT, LU and Alcatel control today 3) Since IP, ATM, and Circuit-Switched network components will all merge both at the backbone, Carrier-To-Carrier level as well as at the gateway and Node level, the traditional Vendors who integrate routing/IP capability will have huge advantage in integrating IP into the current PTT/Carrier network for obvious reasons. 4) Internet is essentially a World Wide LAN that is controlled dominated and controlled by the "old-world" Carriers/PTT's. Cisco plays in the On-Premise market (at the edge) selling routers to allow enterprises to tap into the Internet 5) Internet and IP technology WILL be integrated (note I don't say IP will TAKE OUT existing ATM, Circuit-switched networks) and the Telcos/PTT's/Carriers who control the Internet will likely award 90% of upgrade/integration contracts to LU and NT's of the world 6) As the Internet/IP is being integrated into the existing public network by the "old-world" vendors like LU and NT, they will have huge advantage in extending the functionalities of routers from the Core of their network to the edge --- eliminating the need for specialized proprietary router boxes like Cisco in many situations (not all I agree). This will potentially hurt Cisco's bread & butter revenue stream. 7) Bottom Line: NT & LU has a substantial advantage in controlling the Core/Backbone and parlaying that control into reducting Cisco's dominance in the on-premise, router market. NT & LU have MUCH better chance of extending their market into the on-premise data market than Cisco have in cracking the PTT/Carrier market. This is WHY Cisco is spending billions and billions to leverage and buy their way into the public network infrastructure market -- they realize that the data and voice is merging both at the enterprise and the public network levels and if they do not control SOME aspect of the public network market, they are going to become MARGINALIZED and attacked on all fronts by the "old-world" vendors like LU & NT. I have to credit Chambers for understanding this Inflection Point that they are facing but it is a treacherous road Cisco is treading on --- which many Cisco lemmings may not fully understand! (Hey by the way, if I am completely wrong and Cisco wipes out LU & NT, my guess is that their shares will be worth around $2000 per share in year 2003! The downside is that if they fail, it will likely be worth around $20 --- actually I take that back --- before it hits that low, I am sure NT or LU will take them out and do a buyout of Cisco!)