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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (35653)	12/21/1999 7:20:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

think about what you are saying... unwinding or not... the putting on of that "deflation bet" hid the inflation in the system that Al let go on for 2 yrs thinking he was doing such a great job. That's part of what i have been talking about when i say the whole dollar system has been inflated

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (35653)	12/21/1999 7:20:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>what if the stock market continues to ignore bonds because the rise in yields is still seen as an unwinding of last years deflation fears as opposed to a serious warning sign re. inflation?<<< Heinz, this could be true and is just offering another wall of worry. The spx traded in a sideways fashion most of the year, then broke out on October 28/29 on a volume gap. It appears too many are calling for a top (me included) way too soon and the unwinding of the indecision pattern (as indicated by softie) may have farther to go, even though the unwinding is being put only into tech. btw, did anybody take my gut feel call on yahoo with a target of 450 -gg- b

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (35653)	12/22/1999 4:22:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

obviously yields of 6,45% don't yet suffice to trigger asset re-allocation. we have to ask, what level will? Two or three years ago, the mkt pundits who follow such things used to say that 7% bond yield was seen as a key level that was dangerous for stocks. The nearer to 7% (and above, of course), the more dangerous. I recall seeing 6.7% and 6.8%, and in that area equities didn't used to make the sorts of daily gains that they make nowdays. Incredible that the NDX today alone was up 4.09% (in one day!), and the Naz was up 3.36%. These must be very close to percentage records. All because of a FOMC meeting of which, to mkt pros, it was 99% unanimous as to the monetary outcome (no rate hike), and the majority view was proved right. And so this is cause for stock rallies in everything but the Trannies? Quite a generous reward for all, for all to be proved right. Now the market gets to guess how much the Fed hikes on Feb 1st & 2nd: 1/4 or 1/2? Also, we'll have to be fearing those econ reports between now and then. Oh and of course the big non-event. Also, at what point do fund managers start to get a jump on everyone else (i.e. lock in gains by selling)? I'm looking for a good entry point in puts with a Feb expiry. And on what index? OOTM NDX poots? OOTM MSH poots? Probably all a waste of money, but nevertheless, it would seem to be prudent to at least take a small position somewhere.