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Technology Stocks : Vixel (vixl), a fibre channel company! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LemonHead who wrote (338)	12/21/1999 10:05:00 PM
From: Nice Guy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 377

Falling knifes, huh....I think one hit our friend Mike who I just saw on the ETCX thread at Yahoo bleeding badly. wink With a one day plunge of 30% and over 4 million shares traded , I think it's fair to say that there are few weak hands tonight holding VIXL shares. Meanwhile, I doubt that anyone worth mentioning has the nerve to short VIXL at 21. Withal, I think the stock will rebound or, at the very least, enjoy a dead cat bounce shortly. I averaged down today for several reasons, but mainly because my faith in management continues to be strong. I continue to be impressed, for example, with the fast and efficient manner with which Vivel, which barely had a switch when it IPO'd in Aug, was transformed, so to speak, into a leading fibre channel company with a complete line of switches. True, the transition was a few pennies harder than expected. But then again, Vixel just announced that it will begin shipping its 7000 series switches in Feb, a full quarter ahead of schedule. That good news should, I think, offset the 1-2 cent shortfall this quarter, but in any event, a shortfall so modest is hardly a sufficient reason to conclude that Vixel is worth 30% less today than it was yesterday. Stated differently, I think the Street overreacted and an upside correction is forthcoming. BJ

To: LemonHead who wrote (338)	12/23/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: Kerry Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 377

Re-Post from ANCR Thread...looks bleak for Vixel shareholders unless VIXL can pull off a "Tier 1" switch OEM with someone like AAA Engineering..until then I vote that BotHELL be re-named VixHELL: To: Kerry Lee who wrote (25270) From: Alan Bershtein Thursday, Dec 23, 1999 1:05 AM ET Reply # of 25278 Excepts from SSB research dated 12.22.99... Keep in mind SSB covers ZOOX and BRCD. SSB does not cover VIXL or ANCR. Gadzoox Networks (ZOOX $50.56,3-H,Tgt $90.00) John C. Dean --SUMMARY:--Gadzoox Networks--Computer Storage Vixel (VIXL), a Fibre Channel networking company, pre-announced that it expects to report a loss of $0.26-$0.30 per share, consensus estimates were for a C4Q99 loss of $0.25 per share. Vixel sighted customer demand, Y2K and product transitioning as reasons for the revenue and earnings slump. We believe this is a Vixel specific issue and does not have broader implications. The Vixel announcement does not provide us with any reason to change our estimates for Brocade or Gadzoox. However, we are not comfortable with our current price target on Gadzoox given the recent decline in ZOOX. Our price target for Gadzoox is under review pending C4Q99. <<snip>> VIXEL'S MARKET POSITION ----------------------- Vixel entered the Fibre Channel networking market providing entry-hubs, or dumb hubs. As we outlined in our recent industry report (Understanding Computer Storage) and in greater detail in our initiation reports on Brocade and Gadzoox, customers have outgrown the entry-hub market and began demanding more reliable Fibre Channel networking solutions with greater features and functions. The Vixel announcement is very consistent with what we have been saying both verbally and in our reports. We believe Vixel's announcement is company specific and does not have broader implications. <<snip>> We believe that current SAN networking demand is focussed around managed hubs, although customers are once again raising the bar for increased features and functions. Customers are demanding products that will be able to scale as they develop their new Storage Area Networks (SANs). Upgradable storage networking devices are the next logical phase. Companies have responded to demands by developing upgradable FC-AL switches. Ancor, Brocade and Gadzoox have all set out to satisfy this demand with recent product launches. We believe that the entry hub market is all but gone, the managed hub market is on its way out and the FC-AL upgradable switch market is just beginning to develop and will represent the bulk of customers demand in 2000. We expect FC-AL switches will be a comfortable next step as customers migrate from managed hubs to fabric switches (note: we believe fabric switches will be the ultimate customer demand). We find evidence that this emerging market presents real growth opportunity in that various fabric switch vendors (Brocade and Ancor) and managed hub vendors (Gadzoox and VIXEL) have launched products into the FC-AL switch market. <<snip>> The challenge for Gadzoox will be if the managed hub market tapers off more quickly than anticipated (which would likely result in a rough product transition). We do not believe the managed hub market will taper off as quickly as the entry hub market has; however, we believe it is important in the next six months that Gadzoox: 1)provide its Capellix fabric upgrade and 2)announce the development of a native fabric switch. BROCADE POSITIONING ------------------- Brocade is currently the number one supplier of SAN switches with an estimated 75%-80% market share. Brocade has dominated the SAN fabric switch market. Full fabric switches are essential to the development of large scale SANs. Brocade has targeted the full fabric switch market since the company's founding in 1995. Brocade's ability to offer a broad spectrum of products including: FC-AL, entry fabric and full fabric switches gives it a clear market advantage over competition. One of the real values Brocade provides its customers is scalability with each switch it offers. For example, Brocade's low-end SilkWorm 2010 FC-AL switch can be bought just above managed hub prices (approximately $700-$800 per port; end-user price) and later upgraded to a full fabric SilkWorm 2050 by paying a fee for a software key. We believe the flexibility in Brocade's product line is one of the key differentiators that should keep Brocade in the forefront of storage networking. <<snip>>End of paste