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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (149696)	12/22/1999 11:58:00 AM
From: Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Chuzz,..Re:.I have no answer to proper market valuation or at what precise level the market becomes a bubble, but, like pornography, I do know a bubble when I see one. Valuations aside, where else can one put money to work and expect decent returns? Don't you think some of the exorbitant premium is due to increasing demand for a decreasing supply of quality tech growth stocks? Is it not also possible that the tech stocks we love are also contributing to global GDP growth? And doesn't this increase already healthy demand for these assets? As well as secure future earnings? Finally, given the growth rate of the internet and the race for capital to be deployed in the most efficient manner, would you not consider this more a race to efficient and significant growth of profits rather than expanding hot air?<g> Besides, we're running a budget surplus for the first time in years and our pensions are funded and safe and our banks have to set aside loan loss reserves, all of which are significantly different from the Japan of the late eighties or even now. We only have few isolated pockets of real estate inflation, otherwise the country is not seeing any significant inflation, also unlike Japan. Rates are rising, but it's primarily because the bond market is sooo worried about possible future inflation due to wage pressures because we're finally running out of bodies to fill jobs. But this is sort of like a speed governor, output will be limited, therefore domestic spending will slow somewhat.<g> (probably wishful thinking, imports might grow more!) And productivity will still keep a lid on prices! I don't think the average Japanese invested in their market in the '80s because the government is now living off their savings. <g> The new technology is compelling too, who wouldn't want to be part of the growth of global GDP? Just some cheery, optimistic, Thursday morning views, Lee

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (149696)	12/22/1999 12:00:00 PM
From: TTOSBT	Respond to of 176387

Ironically the most recent advance of this bubble seems to have been extended by the one who warned us a few thousand points ago of "excessive exuberance". What's worse Alan Greenspan is acting in fear of Y2K liquidity crunch. What will he do when his fear is abated or may be intensified at or just after 2000? Like an atomic blast no one within miles or years of such a burst may be safe from harm. Simply just liquidating may not be enough you may have to put all your money under you mattress, HURRY! TTOSBT

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (149696)	12/22/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 176387

Chuzz, Re: "At its height in 1961 IBM had half the P/E that CSCO commands today." Yes, but the average P/E then was a good deal less than that of today, probably about one fourth. Again, I'm quite familiar with the history of computers, and that industry's rampup. It was nothing like the explosiveness we have today in the Internet. I am gradually exiting selected tech stocks (CTXS and BMCS for example) and holding cash. I continue to hold DELL and TLAB because the valuations aren't insane. I think it is madness to short the market because the bubble could continue to expand for some time. I agree with those moves. Still, some companies are so ingrained in investors minds with the approximate doubling growth each year of the Internet, that they'll survive quite large valuations. Tony