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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (37575)	12/23/1999 10:20:00 AM
From: Bill Coenen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Kyros, You must have sold quite a bit of coms to drop the price 2.25. (:%] Seriously, I hope things go well for you. I enjoyed your thoughtful postings and only disagree with the timing of your move. I'm waiting till the February IPO and then taking the same hard look. I still like the wireless future but not necessarily techs in general. Good luck, Bill

To: KyrosL who wrote (37575)	12/23/1999 10:43:00 AM
From: Captain Jack	Respond to of 45548

K- for those reasons and the fact mgmt sux I bailed the remainder at 46 today, It may look good again much lower but there is no real reason to ride this for a year for PALM that may or may not be the IPO of the decade. During the year other issues may provide the same type of ride PALM has. I may grab a few hundred and let it ride,,

To: KyrosL who wrote (37575)	12/23/1999 10:58:00 AM
From: mr.mark	Respond to of 45548

kyros, i wish you well. i admire someone who makes their own investment decisions. imo, the key then is to not beat yourself up afterwards, i.e, coulda', shoulda'. you sure have contributed quality posts to the thread. good luck. :) mark

To: KyrosL who wrote (37575)	12/23/1999 11:00:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Kyros, Good luck to you. You can never be disappointed for making money.. so you did well. I'm sure there will be a good time to get in soon...... OG

To: KyrosL who wrote (37575)	12/23/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: S. M. SAIFEE	Respond to of 45548

Getting out of those bubble stocks make sense but getting out of COMS here does not make sense as Palm IPO is around the corner.. I suspect those who bail out of those high flyer and come to down to earth stocks..

To: KyrosL who wrote (37575)	12/23/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: Mehrdad Arya	Respond to of 45548

Kyros, This morning I started liquidating all of my 3Com positions (stock and calls) as well as all my other tech positions (relatively small amounts of IBM, QCOM, etc.). I have agonized over this decision for the last couple of days; it was one of the most difficult investment decision I have made. Before giving my reasons for doing this, I want to warn the thread that usually I am way too early with my investment moves and either have to wait long for my positions to produce reasonable profits, or leave too much on the table when I exit. For example, early this year I got into QCOM at a price of $60 (split-adjusted) and sold it in the low $100s bought again 15 points higher and finally sold most of it around $190 to get into 3Com -- QCOM today is around $500. I have done the same with Qcom and many other companies So, with this preamble, here are my reasons for selling my techs in general and 3Com in particular in rough order of importance: 1. I believe that there is a dangerous bubble in a relatively small number of high tech and internet stocks. Although 3Com is by no means a member of this bubble, it is no longer the screaming bargain it was earlier this year. When the high tech bubble bursts, it will probably affect all techs, including those that are not part of the bubble. Moreover, it will kill the high tech IPO market for sometime, thus diminishing a large incentive for owning 3Com -- the Palm. I think that there is a high probability that the bubble will burst before the Palm distribution late in 2000, and a measurable probability that it will burst before the Palm IPO late in February. I think you are making an overt mistake in your analysis regarding the Palm. In matters concerning the bubble and its ramifications on the rest of the market you are correct but you fail to delineate the alternative people have in matters concerning their investments & retirement savings. Fiscal policy is such that it does not behoove most to sell until their capital gains are at least a year old. Taking this into consideration you should note that most IPO's and Internet companies surged after the summer months, that would leave us at least a margin of six months before the bubble begins to show any signs of bursting. Second, if Greenspan is to remain at the helm, I believe he will prevent a cataclysmic burst in lieu of a gradual attenuation of air in the bubble. For this reason I believe the Palm IPO will be the most successful IPO to date come February. 2. 3Com's earnings for 2Q and particularly their CC warning about the 3Q disturbed me greatly. I have tried to whistle past the grave yard in the last couple of days, but can no longer pretend that everything is OK. The major disappointment is, of course, the networking disaster. But Palm disappointed me somewhat too: Palm revenues were great, but Palm profits were nothing to write home about. I know markets nowadays care nothing about profits, but I do. I know about the potential for Palm OS and palm.net; I've been preaching about them here. But when a bubble bursts, potential is swiftly discounted and what counts is actual earnings. I do believe Y2K and the Palm spin off had a lot to do with the results in the Networking sector. Remember the Palm VII only went nationwide in the latter part of October and most of the licensee just recently came on board. Revenues in this sector will begin manifest themselves in the middle of next year. Most IPO's can't even come close to what the Palm is already showing. If you compound 50% quarterly for 4 quarters that is a growth rate of over 500% annually, now that is awesome by any standard. 3. I think there are some very good opportunities in the non-tech part of the market and even in (gasp!) bonds. I have started moving my money into these areas and intend to complete the move over the next couple of months. I will be lurking in SI for any tech opportunities, of course. I agree with you if you want to limit your risk as we go into the new millennium. Human sentiment can do wonders to skew markets. 4. I made out very well with 3Com calls and stock. I am a believer in the well worn admonition about hogs getting slaughtered. Again, be warned that those that followed my exit moves in the past have eventually regretted it. Almost always, I tend to leave too much on the table. There is a good possibility that 3Com will double or even triple from here, just like Qualcomm did after I sold it. But my gut tells me that I must get out. Your moves are deliberate and smart, but I also believe in the old adage of heros, "No guts no glory." There definately is a tenuous line between guts and stupidity, when you are correct you are a hero and when you are wrong you are called stupid. Let history speak for itself. Good luck to you and may you have a Merry Xmas and awesome New Year. Ciao

To: KyrosL who wrote (37575)	12/23/1999 11:30:00 AM
From: FNS	Respond to of 45548

G/Luck, KyrosL, enjoyed your posts including others on this thread...Thanks! I've been riding this baby fo some time and empathize with your concerns... and leaving some on the table is what it is all about. So following your gut and staying within your comfort level is a pretty wise move. In deciding to ride this turkey a while longer, I've checked out the chart and, basically, COMS is still in an uptrend...in a previous post # 37169 I stated: <<...On 12/9 COMS broke out at 44 from a bullish triangle...as for placing a tight stop in low 40's, 42 would be the first 2D (double bottom) break, but additional support at 40 and 39 exists...38 would mean big trouble and to pack it up!!! >> Quite frankly, with year end tax selling and emotions flying high regarding EB et al, I've decided to give COMS some time to right itself and allow those weaker hands to leave... As long as COMS can stay above in an uptrend (currently above 38-39), I think we have a good chance that things will pan out. Further, once we get a few analysts talking more positively about COMS/PALM I feel confident that COMS will do OK. The stock, however, will no doubt be volatile in the next few weeks... In the end, I think COMS and PALM will prevail! I wonder if COMS would have been better off making the PALM a tracking stock??? FNS

To: KyrosL who wrote (37575)	12/23/1999 2:01:00 PM
From: peter grossman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Kyros, I've found your posts very helpful in the past, and I respect your informing the board of your thoughts and position before the fact -- unlike others. The single persuasive argument to hold COMS is to get PALM -- you've argued this many times. COMS cap is now $15B. You've argued that PALM may well be $15B or more by itself. When COMS was 30, I thought your estimates were high, but COMS was still a good buy. When the MOT, NOKIA, AOL buy in prices PALM privatelely at $5B, I thought you were right the whole time -- still do. You only have to wait two months -- you really think things are going to change that much. The Palm IPO doesn't have to go bananas, a la Sycamore, et al. It's going to be priced well north of $5B, so a modest rise will carry COMS with it. It doesn't have to go ballistic. If it doubles from $7.5 B, then COMS will go over 60. Admittedly, COMS quarter was disappointing, and the guidance was worse. But a positive surprise would have been gravy. The leftover COMS still will have sales north of $5B and reasonably positive earnings. At $7.5B the leftover COMS will sell at only 1.5x sales and <30x earnings. It's hard to imagine COMS without PALM getting much worse than the guidance (which also signalled growth in Q4 and very positive asset management). Just curious about your change of heart. There are other approaches than dumping -- sell covered calls, buy put protection against a market collapse, etc.