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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (35865)	12/23/1999 12:46:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, i posted a few days ago that Chris Carolan said that the full moon episode might marke a low in the a/d line. Today we are breaking above zero in the mccllelan oscillator and registering a buy spike. I don't know where you can get a chart now of the oscillator, but i believe it is also creating a cup and handle formation with the big cup from april thru october. forget the mania, there are a plethora of stocks that are selling at mid single digit p/e's that should rally from here. bb

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (35865)	12/23/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I agree that advertising no matter if we click on it or not is and will stick around as an internet revenue stream. I don't agree with teh accounting methods on much of it i.e. you advertise my site on your home page and I will do the same for you allowing us both to book earnings income on what "we" feel is fair value despite no money changing hands though. I had a hard time digesting that advertising onteh wen was valid until I thought about radio. Here is an industry where market shaer is important and is soley operated on advertising income. The model is real but then again, have you ever looked at broadcasting incomes??? Not exactly PE ratio 10,000 material. The giving away of services to make stock prices jump would be like McDonnald's stock going from 39 to 100 today because they said they were going to give away their food from now on and replace the windows in their resterant with advertising banners. Does anyone reallythink that 1.) the stock would go through the roof? and 2.) we would keep going there in droves once the free food stopped 10 years down the road if they could even stay in business that long??? I do believe that the net can survive on ads being the only income but the valuations are jsut obscene. Same with B2B comapanies. IBM, KEA, CPWR, PSFT, CA, CSC all have been in B2B well before the latest newcomers. The difference in thier valuations is due to low float of stock and that the newcomers have no income to value them by. The "old timers" clearly show how much profit is really out there for this and already have their feet inthe door so the slow and steady growth of B2B is reality and bursts the bubble of the B2B mo mo investors that dream of 10,000% daily growth. Still, I have no idea when this will end. Money chasing money is the way to win and many are doing OK at it. Until we get to the point where we actually all are trading only one stock, this could go on a very very long time. I still am looking for a minor dip in mid to late January but I think the Fed will keep feeding the bubble to offset all the repos expiring around that time frame so it will be minor. Then as spring/summer rolls around, the post Y2K slowdowns already showing up to some degree in this quarters earnings will hit everyone right between the eyes. I think next summers tech slump will be the final one with little to no bounce. As teh money flees, the DOW stocks will finally get their day and we can readjust portfolios and attempt a recovery. Will it be successful depends on who gets out in time and how much the tax payers have to bail out the ones that don't. The scary thing is that the NASDAQ has gained over 30% in 7 weeks and over 70% this year. The NASDAQ did not corect when the rest of the market did July - October. Just to have a normal Fib retracement would be a major drop by historical standards. Good Luck, Lee