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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (7624)	12/26/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: Mark Madden	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Here is a weekend report on disk drive pricing from a sample of retail distributor drives. The drives include 229 samples from 4 different distributors. Disk drive pricing remained stable last week. The weighted average desktop drive price remained even at 0.0% increase last week. The average price of drives less than 11 gb increased 0.3%. The average price of drives between 11 and 21 gb dropped 0.6%. The average price of drives over 21 gb increased 0.4%. The average SCSI drive (enterprise) increased 0.6%. The weighted average desktop drive price dropped 1.8% for the last month. The average price of drives less than 11 gb dropped 0.3%. The average price of drives between 11 and 21 gb dropped 2.4%. The average price of drives over 21 gb dropped 3.9%. The average SCSI drive dropped 0.8%. The weighted average desktop drive dropped at the monthly rate of 0.6% since the beginning of this quarter. The average SCSI drive price dropped at a monthly rate of 2.7% since the beginning of the quarter. For the two years preceding this quarter the average disk drive price dropped about 5.0% per month. Only 23 of the 141 desktop drives sampled changed in price over the past week. Fifteen of the price changes were up. Maxtor led the price increases with 7 drives between the ranges of 17.4gb and 40.3gb. The most common price reduction was 4 drives in the 20gb range. The enterprise drives had their largest weekly increase of the quarter at 0.6% following the previous largest increase of 0.2% last week. Their prices are finishing strong indicating strength in demand after a mushy mid quarter. Regards, Mark

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (7624)	12/27/1999 5:58:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

<<The weighted average desktop drive dropped at the monthly rate of 0.6% since the beginning of this quarter. The average SCSI drive price dropped at a monthly rate of 2.7% since the beginning of the quarter. For the two years preceding this quarter the average disk drive price dropped about 5.0% per month. >> So, if we estimate that a price drop of 12% per qtr results in margins which neither increase or decrease, desktop margins should be 10% higher exiting this qtr than at the beginning averaging 5% higher for this qtr. A second qtr of stable pricing would add an additional 10% (with 5% caarying over to the next qtr)easily restoring normal profitability, which is way too much to ask for. Even resuming a 12% drop next qtr would allow the second 5% increase to be realized, getting profitability to breakeven or better. But then the summer follows and ruins everything unless demand is extraordinary. -Z