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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TraderXx who wrote (36007)	12/25/1999 1:56:00 PM
From: C Hudson	Respond to of 99985

TraderX, The point is that this massive bubble will have massive consequences when it bursts. It may go on for a bit longer but when it bursts, it will be worse than '29.

To: TraderXx who wrote (36007)	12/25/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

TraderXx, sorry to disapoint you but you have misunderstood my post. It will be helpful to you to read "The Chicken Page" as to my personal view of a crash even that I did not updated it for a while for personal reasons. As to the last 15 years I do not think that any of the poster on this tread think about such a long time span, and if you were on Prodigy Classic financial message boards, 12 years ago, you would learned much more about me. There is time to buy and time to sell. Would admit that I am not playing the Internet stocks and also do not subscribe to the "New Era" or the Technological revolution. The Internet is nothing more than the telephone or the radio/TV ordering from catalogs was much easier after the proliferation of those items, so "there is nothing new under the sun" some one famous and of remarkable wisdom said 2500 years ago. As to my statement I stand behind it, or if you chose load on CBLT, RHAT, JNPR, QCOM etc, next Monday for at least an 5 year hold period. BWDIK Haim

To: TraderXx who wrote (36007)	12/25/1999 9:34:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Your post abot if the J6Ps are idiots I think purely depends on which perspective you take. From thier perspective, although most of them don't know what a PE ratio, a 10Q, SEC form 8 etc is, they made money so good for them as long as it lasts. However from the perspective of our economy and the long lasting affects, I could't disagree with you more. The Mo Mo traders winning out and the catch the wave mentality that has become required in this market because of it as the only way to maximize gains is to continually chase fewer and fewer stocks still moving is a bad thing for our economy as a whole. This is a bit confusing because a market going up IS good for the economy but a market going up on thin breadth is not. My main problem with the way the market has traded and who is getting all the market cap lately is this. The Fed is raising rates trying to cool things down largely due to the huge gains made in these fewer and fewer specualtive issues. This in turn hurts the older time proven companies more than the high flyers because as I posted earlier, the old companies are the ones that rely on loans for capital where as the speculative ones use IPO and secondary offerings to finance thier operations. Should this continue for too long, you could actually cause shutdowns in brick and mortar companies due to the costs of operations being too high which would cut profits and cause even more selling of stock thus a vicious cycle could ensue where the spindly legs get spindlier. Will America be happy if we are all only trading SUNW, EMC, QCOM, YHOO etc getting rich but have no Supermarkets, no cars, no furniture or food? Ever taste a 100 bill or try to eat it on a sandwich between two stock certificates? We are forcing "real" companies out of business as we trade up the pipe dreams for what might be in the future. Listen to the economists now. Almost EVERYONE agrees we are going to get 3 maybe 4 rate hikes next year and these are the people that said no way would we get any of the 3 we got last year so we could get 8 or nine for all we know. I know everything is different this time but I will eat my hat if we see 10000 PE ratios with a 9% discount rate in the next year or two. Listening to a very good stock trader that picked many of the last 2 years high flyers and even he said that the market is doing it all wrong now. He pointed out that in all the last manias, it was the structure providers that survived and all the other guys eventually died out with new unheard of guys emerging at the end. In the gold rushes, the guys selling the mine equipment survived and all the original miners disappeared with new ones coming in late and lasting after it was over. In the Biomed craze, it was the labratory equipment guys that survived and all the stocks of the actual Biomed companies went worthless with new comers emerging at the end to dominate. His point is that the CSCOs, SUNWs, the telecoms will be the survivors albeit at MUCH LOWER valuations that will survive and that history has shown that all the B2B and AMZNs of teh world will be extinct byt he time the structure is finished and the actual benefits start to be seen. He said every single emerging mania has shown that the companies that are now high flyers will be COMPLETELY gone and that 5 years down the road, companies that aren't even being traded now will become the ones that survive and actually benefit from all this mainly because the technology is too young and it could change too much before any real benefits come from it. Ooops, I got off my main point. Basically we are no longer helping the economy through investing, we are in actuality forcing out real companies by over heating the economy on bullpucky stocks which in turn raises the cost of operations for real companies forcing them to shutdown, move to overseas operations or some other means of surviving that won't be good for the economy. If GM stock say, keeps falling, interest rates get so high that they can't borrow anymore etc, do you think they will keep paying some high school drop out 20 bucks an hour to put lug nuts on? No way, they will shut down Detroit, move the ENTIRE operation to Mexico, Korea etc and layoff the city. Same with All the other companies that make non tech investor momentum type things. It will become self fullfilling prophecy. The only way out of this is to trade stocks based on realistic valuations. Is CSCO or SUNW good companies? Hey, you bet they are, the best!!! However at their current valuations, you would have to own them for the next 200 years if they started paying a dividend tomorrow to break even on your purchase price even if they did grow as fast as everyone expects them to. Now do you want to bet that there will be no technology changes, recessions or new companies threatening to muscle them out in the next 200 years? Of course we all know that General Washington surfed the net to get the Weather report at Valley Forge and the indians knew where General Custer was because someone e-mailed them and told them. Think about it and you would be a little more sober too. 5-10 yers from now, there might not even be an internet as we know it. There are other amazing things in the pipeline for communications and this may all prove to be just a stepping stone that will be obsolete. Has anyone ever stopped to consider that the packeting technology that QCOM may or may not have ownership of might be obsolete in another year or two??? I will GUARANTEE it will be obsolete in 5-10 years and yet they are alerady trading at 150 years valuation. Of course this time it is different and of course technology will never change. Before my grandmother died a few years ago, she recounted her life's memories. She remembered when traveling into town was a "long trip" requiring packing the day before, leaving before dawn just so they could get supplies and get back home after dark. She later could drive the trip in the car in 30 minutes and enjoyed traveling around the world in her senior years. We drive across country in a matter of days or fly in hours what it took the settlers almost a year to do. Buy any stock in Saratoga wagon makers lately???? As I type this to you across fiber optic cables that we all think will change the world, have you traded any telegraph stock lately since it was going to be the end all technology??? How many of the oprigianl car maufacturers are still left? Airline companies??? Who will survive as the internet providers of the future and will everyone get access through telephone lines, wireless, cable or something we don't even know about yet such as power grid lines like the candian company is doing? This is already much much longer than I planned on and I need to go play with my kid's new toys so good luck and though this time is different, technology has changed at an ever increasing rate and the things of tomorrow will be improved upon and become obsolete much faster than teh generation before. Why bet that technology will be the same for 200, 100 even 50 years when in reality, we know it will change hands in probably less than 10. And why force out of business the companies that provide what we really need to survive in the non revolutionary sectors. How many people can enjoy the new technology if all the brick and mortar companies go out of business or move overseas to avoid the huge interest rates caused by the specualtion in pipe dreams and they are left without jobs? Of course this is the rosy scenario for if the market never corrects. If that were to happen, then that is another story. Good Luck, Lee