To: 16yearcycle who wrote (57121 ) 12/28/1999 9:56:00 AM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
biggest risk in my view is overreaction by Fed to growth which has built-in controls already big risk with turnover of several Federal Reserve governors, who in my opinion still are living in post-war Europe and Volker inflationary days... out are going the wise governors who understand the new economy and fight any/all rate hikes... in are likely to come inflation hawks who want to raise and raise and raise... it bothers me to no end the rapid growth that will only continue into the new year will scare the bejesus out of the crusty farts on the FOMC.. they will feel compelled to act, and likely raise rates twice more, both hikes imprudent... much of the Info Systems equipmt investment will slow down by spring... more temperate demand should take care of itself then come the economists... most incomptent group of statisticians in the country... they will get it wrong again, scaring the public investor community... they will expect a mid/late year2000 recession that will NOT happen... I make no apologies to any economist readers... if you dont already know about the low professional quality work done by practicioners in your field, then you are among the incompetent yourself we are likely to become embroiled in severe debates on issue of "growth causing inflation" which is utter rubbish... growth leads to increased supply as well as demand... the growth data will be eye-popping, but so will the productivity data be eye-popping... as big as our productivity rates are reported, it is actually somewhat greater still... cheaper PC prices are treated as economic slowdown effects, not improved productivity evidence... service automation is not even incorporated our Fed Money Supply growth is massive right now, but for God's sake, the Federal Reserve is supplying liquidity in the form of cash for circulation to at least a dozen nations and their foreign economies... it is likely that y2000 will see most if not all of Latin America and South America using the USDollar in circulation, thus wiping out monetary instability got some wicked dicey times coming in March-April-May my choices are difficult, since I wanna convert to shares and use some margin... motive is to cut way down the taxes from avoiding complete option call selling... I wanna build a core common share position... what a helluva time to build it into the spring??? I wear myself out, and it isnt even 10am MM's are holding us even on QCOM price they had better bring spare skivvies what is that I smell? / Jim