El,
The street is talking about it. Now all we need is MC to "SHOW ME THE MONEY!" Lord, I do wish I had seen that movie. Listening to a Roy Orbison CD today. Are you going south? This article started boring me, but it has a few points.
NW
IDC PREDICTS FREE INTERNET ACCESS, INTERNET STOCK CORRECTION - AGAIN - AND
DEATH OF THE '.COM' GET READY FOR THE NEW INTERNET 2000, SAYS IDC's Frank Gens
In His Fifth Annual Internet Predictions
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., Dec 29, 1999 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Expect
Internet stock corrections -- again -- death of the ".com," and an
explosion of free Internet access in the online industry in 2000,
International Data Corporation (IDC) predicted today. These Internet
market developments are among IDC's Fifth Annual Predictions of key
trends, strategies, and events that will change the Internet playing
field in the next century.
The key themes for IDC Predictions 2000 by Frank Gens, IDC's senior
vice president, Internet Research are:
* Financial reality meets Internet: a broadening Internet stock
correction, consolidation in key ecommerce segments, and a shift to
profitability as a virtue for .coms. Internet players expect to be
profitable by 2001. Whether they will be or not, we shall see. But
there's a growing sense that they need to be.
* Free Internet access services, devices, and software: Kmart's
eyebrow-raising deal with Yahoo, offering free Internet access to those
who register at Bluelight.com, will look very, very common by the end of
Q1.
* Death of .com as a sole strategy: Customers are on the Internet -- and
everywhere else! In the coming year pure-play Internet players will
develop presence in the real world. Think pure-play Internet banks and
brokers and regional banks. Think Amazon and WebVan.
* Channels, channels, channels: This year smart companies will actually
put the network effect to work in their business model (duh...),
radically expanding their echannels, and becoming channels for others.
Indirect channels will make a huge comeback: shopbots and the new
virtual malls, digital marketplace, and affiliate marketing. Even
Michael Dell, poster child for direct marketing on the Net, will embrace
the new breed of echannels.
According to Gens, "The company that possesses the ability to
anticipate and adapt to this new Internet will create a whole new pack
of Internet players in 2000."
Technologies for the Next Generation
* Broadband in more than 1 in 10 online households by yearend 2000 --
about 2.5 times the number in 1999
* Home LANS in 38% of U.S. households with two or more PCs
* eWallets for wired consumers will reach critical mass just in time for
the 2000 holiday season
Predictions Grab-Bag: Microsoft, Politicians, Celebrity CEOs, and
Fired VPs
* Microsoft break-up: IDC predicted this last year. Either Microsoft will
break itself up or the Department of Justice will. Yes, we were a
little bit early. Yes, it's still going to happen.
* Still more presidential candidates seek Internet paternity: Last year
IDC predicted that one or more presidential candidates would seek to
grab credit for the Internet and ecommerce -- thank you, Mr. Vice
President. Amazingly, the flack Al Gore took will not deter others from
seeking Internet credit in 2000. The scary part is that they will do so
by proposing new legislation and regulation.
* Celebrity CEOs will jump to ".coms": What do you do when you're an upper
middle-aged executive who's done it all, are tremendously wealthy, and
are bored out of your mind? Time to jump to an Internet startup! Our
picks to follow Lou Dobbs and George Shaheen are Scott McNealy of Sun
and Larry Ellison of Oracle.
* Many Fortune 1000 businesses will still bungle ".com": Despite the many
very visible examples about how not to run an Internet business, many
Fortune 1000 companies will still struggle getting their online
initiatives to work. Expect a lot of Internet unit vice presidents and
presidents to be fired.
IDC Predictions That Came True Gens' predictions have been more than
70% accurate over the past four years. "This is not just throwing
darts; it is driven by our worldwide market research network that
enables us to detect the first tremors of Internet change," Gens said.
In 1999, the following predictions came true:
* Compaq would sell off AltaVista -- they did to CMGI.
* Excite would be acquired -- they were by @Home.
* ZDNet would be spun out of Ziff Davis -- it was, as a tracking stock.
* Live phone support would break out on the Web -- started in '99; most
visible example -- Lands End Live.
* On the lighter side:
-- One or more presidential candidates would grab credit for the
Internet, eCommerce -- thank you, Al Gore.
-- Worldwide Internet commerce volume would finally exceed Bill Gates'
net worth -- it just did last month.
* Women would shift from online minority to majority -- we were close;
the percentage was 47% last December; latest data shows they now account
for 50%.
The full text of Gens' Predictions will be on the IDC Web site at
idc.com. For additional information about IDC's Internet
research program, contact Jon Guloyan at 508-935-4296 or at
jguloyan@idc.com.
About IDC IDC delivers dependable, relevant, and high-impact data and
insight on information technology to help organizations make sound
business and technology decisions. IDC forecasts worldwide IT markets
and technology trends and analyzes IT products and vendors, using a
combination of rigorous primary research and in-depth competitive
analysis. IDC is committed to providing global research with local
content through more than 500 analysts in 42 countries worldwide. IDC's
customers comprise the world's leading IT suppliers, IT organizations,
and the financial community. Additional information can be found at
idc.com.
IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world's leading IT
media, research, and exposition company.
All product and company names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks of their respective holders.
SOURCE International Data Corporation
(C) 1999 PR Newswire. All rights reserved.
prnewswire.com
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CONTACT: Erin Marino, 617-489-2006, or elmarino@elmpr.com, for IDC
/Company News On-Call:
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