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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (36118)	12/30/1999 4:07:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

John, the news background has been going from bad to worse, yet the stock stubbornly refuses to break through the $66 or so area. To me that is an indication that market participants believe all the bad news is in the stock. Of course, a breach of that level would indicate that additional bad news, such as your assumption that INTC no longer support RMBS for PC applications is materializing. I would say that the market is trying to tell us that RMBS will eventually get into the main desk top PC business (not as fast as earlier anticipated, maybe), and that additional applications will result in the resumption of licenses outside the PC market arena. I think that the crescendo scenario is not dead, just delayed. My target of a low of $37 assumes an additional "accident" that will cause a temporary breach of the mid 60' support, but I do not assign to this possibility a very high probability. Zeev

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (36118)	12/30/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Sony Playstation II sales will allow RMBS to support some price range from a time frame of 2-3 years ago when major earnings were from N64 royalties. I think PSII earnings will barely offset rapidly declining PC DRAM licensing fees. The only saving grace is PS II has 32 MB RAM vs 8 MB for N64 and PS II may outsell N64 unit wise in 2000 relative to N64 in mid 90's timeframe. hi john, coupla points: rdram is in pc's now...dell is taking orders and shipping. also been told that hp is shipping. 820 chipset with 512 mb rdram can be ordered from dell right now for shipping in 46 business days...that tells me 256 rimms are about here. n64 and rdram is not a closed issue imo. unclewest today's dell source for my rdram info is shane at 1 800 474-3355 x 46493. he is there today until 9 or 9:30pm cst.

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (36118)	12/30/1999 11:55:00 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

John, Those 9 mil shorts are not going to close their position until RMBS retests some of the support levels of pre-Intel annointment era. I don't understand the "short" mentality at all so my confidence in the following proposal is low, but here's another scenario: I would guess that being short is a very short-term mindset. You don't short a company expecting to stay short for the next 5 years. So if it's short term, at some point you have to decide to take your profits. Now we've been trading flat for a couple of weeks, bottoming out at 68-70. If I was a short, I'd figure I've probably made enough for now -- it doesn't seem to be dropping much more in the short term. So why not buy this position back and use my capital to short something else? I can always short RMBS again after it skyrockets. However, I'd rather wait until after the first of the year to take my gains so we need to keep it down for now. There was even a little blip yesterday that was beaten back which feels to me like they're just trying to hold it down until after the start of the New Year (surely it wasn't new Shorts thinking it's about to tank!). So I'm guessing a run-up after the 1st as at least some of the shorts take their profits and move on to something else that's going down, down, down. I have no prediction on whether it will be a real squeeze, or just a small jump up which will then be pounced on by more Shorts. BWDIK. Again, that mentality is foreign to me. Dave p.s. Don -- We were in Monterey all day; I'll get you some numbers tomorrow. The prize for the winner is far too exciting to not spend at least a little time putting it through my econometric models to develop the best guess that I possibly can <VBG>.