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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (58418)	12/31/1999 12:28:00 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 152472

All anecdotal evidence supports strong CDMA sub growth. JP Morgan will increase estimates after CC, per analysts comments.. Actually thus far every single thing I have read has not been very good....and I follow CDMA sub growth all over the world. The single exception might be Israel, not what I would base my hopes on. I've said it a bunch of times....the US needs to lead the CDMA growth for the next two years. Hopefully the Lehman analyst was wrong when he lowered his PCS sub growth for the fourth quarter. It's a long way down.... Thanks kkirby....you expressed my sentiments exactly. Hopefully after the split is over we will get back to concentrating on the fundamentals. Slacker

To: MileHigh who wrote (58418)	12/31/1999 9:19:00 AM
From: Webster	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Mile High - yes all anecdotal evidence does support strong CDMA sub growth which will correspond to q's EPS growth. I would expect more analysts to uncover the real earning power of qcom after the January earnings report and if they give a pro-forma number without handsets. Q's business model is coming down to cdma devices sold = X EPS. FWIT a look below is a rough calculation of cdma devices sold and how it corresponds to EPS. Although it is a rough analysis because there are many variables such as market share of asics, future decline of ASP's but nevertheless we will see a direct relationship to EPS and CDMA devices sold. For Example: FY99 - In q's FY99 40 million new cdma devices were produced world-wide. FY00 - 80 Mil Devices - $5.00 EPS -$1.25 Split Adjusted (my estimate) Q has already said that FY00 subscriber unit sales for asics could reach 90 million new devices (or more). Q said they were comfortable with 70 mil asics in FY00. With approximately $5.00 FY00 EPS(now adjusted to $1.25 for the 4-1 split) on approximately 80 million devices sold (world-wide) provides qcom with over $12 of net income for every new cdma device sold. FY01 150 mil new devices - $7.50 to $8.00 EPS ($1.87 to $2.00 EPS Split adjusted) - My Estimate. Not only will world-wide demand curve grow, we will start to see the churn of new devices (current subscribers buying new units). We will also begin to see a roll-out of HDR. FY02 - 250 mil new devices - $ 13.25 EPS - $3.25 split adjusted (my estimate) CDMA appliances, Automobiles, wireless computers the standard - T, Europe starts, worldwide penetration continues. FY03 - 400 mil new devices $ 19.00 EPS - $4.75 split adjusted(my estimate). Annual churn of devices, multiple cdma devices per subscriber, multiple cdma devices within the house. QCOM's explosive earning capability will become more widely known sometime this year. I am glad we have both demand for this stock coupled with earning power unlike many other companies. Thanks Web.