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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30323)	1/3/2000 2:20:00 PM
From: Luce Wildebeest	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's U.S. investment strategist Byron Wien said Monday that he sees the Federal Reserve beginning a monetary tightening in the spring and hiking rates by more than 100 basis points by year-end to slow the economy. The tightening, combined with high valuations, will spark a stock market slide that will take the Standard & Poor's 500 (^SPX - news) down 25 percent, where it will remain for several months. He said that the powerful advances in the global and U.S. economies and stock markets will create an enormous demand for capital early in the year, and the long U.S. Treasury bond yield will top 7.5 percent, further straining excessive equity valuations. He also sees online users complaining about slow speeds, disappointing service at some tech companies, and delivery bottlenecks from e-tailers triggering buyer resistance in Internet-related stocks. ``There is a graduated carnage in technology. Some Internet content and retailing stocks correct 50 percent, and access providers come down by a third. Personal computer and other hardware companies with current earnings only decline 25 percent,' Wien added. ``The Internet continues to be viewed as the most powerful business phenomenon in our lifetime, but the stocks were discounting a profitability reality that was unlikely to come true.' During the year, Wien sees the price of crude oil moving above $30 a barrel and staying there as growth throughout most of the world beats expectations and supply remains under control. He expects oil service stocks to rally, with Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL - news), Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE:SLB - news) and Smith International Inc. (NYSE:SII - news) seeing gains. This could be the year for hospital management firms after a number of dismal years, Wien said. Conflicts with the government are reversed as legislators view these operations as part of the healthcare solution rather than part of the problem, he forecast, adding that Columbia/HCA Healthcare Corp. (NYSE:COL - news), Tenet HealthCare (NYSE:THC - news) and Health Management Associates Inc. (NYSE:HMA - news) will do especially well. The Russell 2000 will outperform the S&P 500 by rising more at the beginning of the year and declining less later on, he said. As commodity prices continue to move higher, new leadership sectors will appear and intermediate materials stocks will outperform the indexes. Restructuring has proven a good medicine for Europe this year, he said. Wien sees the European economy climbing by 4 percent, with the euro hitting 1.25 against the dollar during the summer. However, he did not see the same rosy outlook in Japan. Restructuring will backfire in Japan and the economy will slip back into recession on high unemployment, low consumer spending, and weak capital outlays, Wien said. (Note: this article is ``in progress'; there will likely be an update soon.)

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30323)	1/3/2000 7:34:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

<<, however I would still think that 1442 is a very solid support and it will take a lot of doing to break through it, for me the trade is a long one somewhere here on SPH with a stop at 1455.>> Message #30323 from IQBAL LATIF at Jan 3 2000 12:12PM from that time on we saw a gradual movement up in SPH the long trade worked perfectly without testing taht 1455 again.. quote.lycos.com The Old Aug high is 11365, we have had one close below that today but i doubt we will see a seond close, but i will watch it carefully, as we expected RUT after making a 594 did close higher from lows as did SPH..NDX made a solid rebound from lows of 3660 area that is 29th low and was good test..of supports, <<If old high on DOW is taken out I will like to wait for double close and break of 1442 support to start looking at the other side od the market, we can see some important selling but as far as NDX and important key stocks are holding we will see that overall the impact of a strong 1999 and containment of Y2K doubts will help the markets, bonds are in my opinion heading for 6.75% for sure and that is a area where the bonds will be extremely oversold.. >> I wanted to start 2000 with a winning big trade and that was my objective today as I saw glooom and doom prophets out in full force at 12.12, I thought that long call makes a lot of sense, nice returns and good long at that time.. I would assume that NDX will keep ignoring bond yields but below 6.48 or 6.75 bonds are a good buy.. RUT tested its support nice we will se higher volatility but for any smart invesotr this is just noise the real problems for this market will only begin once 1442 is taken out on two closing basis, this is one solid support alongwith 4000 on Comp and 3700 on NDX, it is simple but straight, and one cannot avoid it, one can keep buying lot of puts but the real puts should be bought once 3650 is cracked on NDX or 1455 is cracked . market is all about levels and to expect that marke will break a cerain support is a fault, we need to long the support as other indexes show sign of strength and sell when major supports are out, it is called as trading with the trend, don't ever try to brign the masrekt to you is my second message for 2000, we have these things repeated very oftenly here, and this is nothing new but the calls we made today only indicate that until our supports break we are in a uptrend..BKX weighed heavily on DOW and overall selling the bond yields and prices paid was the culprit but 720 is one solid support and that synchronises with our 11365 of Aug I expect both to hold fwiw.. lets see if that is true for next sessions.. bi bi and once again lets pray for a phenomenol begginign to what appears to me a good starting stroke in the year 2000.. good night and see you in them mornng..