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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (84774)	1/3/2000 12:56:00 PM
From: DRBES	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572100

re: "How did DRBES arrive at such a possible earnings outcome so long ago?" I have a Doctorate in physics; but, far more important, I got my education in arithmetic in public schools during the fifties. Regards, DARBES

To: niceguy767 who wrote (84774)	1/3/2000 1:18:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572100

Niceguy, Re:"selling 12.5M Athlons may provide $2/qtr" It is not clear to me that AMD can sell 12M Athlons into just the retail market - without trashing the ASPs into the $120-130 range. They will need additional OEMS and business SKU's from folks like AMD/Compaq etc. And they will need them starting Q1 2000 not mid-year. From all indication manufacturing at Fab 25 has been awesome. The only roadblocks appear to be Sales and the big dresden yield issue. But these are significant roadblocks. regards, kash

To: niceguy767 who wrote (84774)	1/3/2000 7:07:00 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1572100

Nigeguy - RE: "With 12.5 million Athlons, AMD could average $2.00 per quarter in Y2000 as pointed out by you..." One thing to keep in mind is that AMD is coming out with an Athlon Select this year that will take the place of the K6-2+ (which wil take the place of the current K6-2). These Athlons will probably sell for what the K6-2 sells for now, assuming AMD doesn't change their strategy. So sometime this year overall Athlon ASPs may go down when the Athlons Select comes out. I say may because AMD is also supposed to come out with an enhanced Athlon core (Mustang) that will have more on-chip cache on it than previous Athlons and will sell for much higher than current and upcoming Athlons, hopefully with Xeon-like prices. But these Athlons will come out after the Athlon Select. It is during this gap Athlon ASPs may go down a good bit. Also, this Athlon Select is going to be larger to than the K6-2 is. And as a result, it will cost AMD more to make it. This Q, I expect Athlon ASPs to go down some from Q4 because practically all Athlons will be made on the .18 process. So the Athlon will cost less to make and AMD will be able to price the Athlon more aggressively. Of course, if AMD hardly sells any processors below 650MHz, ASPs may actually go up!