Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (84833)	1/3/2000 7:19:00 PM
From: Y. Samuel Arai	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572161

>> RE: "With 12.5 million Athlons, AMD could average $2.00 per quarter >> in Y2000 as pointed out by you..." > ...So sometime this year overall Athlon ASPs may go down when the > Athlons Select comes out... Well, even at only $1.00/quarter, it'll be $4.00/year, and if we value AMD at 20x y2k earnings, that'll be $80/sh. If we do make Niceguy's $2/qtr estimate, that'll be $160/sh. Hmmmm... :-)

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (84833)	1/3/2000 7:36:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572161

<These Athlons will probably sell for what the K6-2 sells for now, assuming AMD doesn't change their strategy. > The MHz distribution of Athlon core should ensure that AMD gets substantially better ASPs on spitfire than what they got with K6s. Celeron ASPs or better is what I would look for.

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (84833)	1/3/2000 8:14:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1572161

Hi Cirruslvr: All other things equal (i.e maintenance of strong demand for flash memory), one can make the case that there exists a correlation between the number of incremental AThlons per quarter and the positive change in eps. 99Q3 Athlons of 200,000 resulted in a positve change in eps of about $0.40. The increment in 99Q4 Athlons assuming 1.3 shipped year to date is 1.1 million units and will probably result in a positive change in eps of $1.00 from neg. $0.72 to positive $0.32. Assuming such a correlation exists, it seems that eps increases by about $0.10 for each increment of 100,000 Athlons...If 99q4 earnings come in at $0.30 and if incremental Athlons in Y2000 are 11 million (i.e 12.5 million in Y2000 minus 1.5 million in 1999) then all other things equal, additional earnings of about $11.00 will be generated for a Y2000 eps of $11.30... Of course it.s not quite that simplistic as pointed out by you...taxes and low end Athlon pricing are in the offing...perhaps offsetting some or all of these 2 negative factors is the production cost reduction of 40 to 50% associated with the Dresden 0.18 micron process... It is with the foregoing in mind that assuming 12.5 million Athlons are shipped in Y2000, that one can, at the moment, reasonably project an average eps in Y2000 of close to $2.00 per quarter.