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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2348)	1/3/2000 3:23:00 PM
From: Merritt	Respond to of 3536

www3.techstocks.com

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2348)	1/3/2000 4:26:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Hi Robert, hope all is well. My post Y2K Outlook: So the world did not end... no planes fell from the sky and electricity, natural gas, oil and water all continue to flow as usual. I can't say that I'm not a bit disappointed, considering all the seemingly believable doomsday scenarios that have been shoved down our throats the over the past 12 months. Now that 'everything is alright forever', look for the Dollar to weaken and bonds to continue tanking as the Fed mops up the liquidity it swamped the markets with these past few months (which it admittedly did as a Y2K precaution). As the money supply decreases, financial stocks will feel the pinch and a tech sell-off should also finally materialize. Technical analysis confirms this posture. The Dollar has just completed a six month triangle (coiling) pattern which means that a violent move up or down is about to occur. I believe that the move in the Dollar will be down, as emerging markets attract investment due to their low valuations and high growth prospects relative to the U.S., not to mention the recent death of Y2K concerns, which have undoubtedly sidelined many an institution from committing capital to these markets. I am: 1. Bearish on U.S. tech, financials, the Dollar and bonds. 2. Bullish on Emerging Markets, HK, Japan and the Euro. 3. Bullish on Natural Resources, though not as bullish as just two months back...primarily because Y2K has not disrupted natural resource availability. A prosperous millenium to all on the thread!

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2348)	1/3/2000 5:46:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 3536

Hello Robert, You've been away from this block party for some time. <<smile>> Happy New Year!!!!! US Bonds: commoditiesfutures.com I'm also wondering about the pressures just over the hill with International currencies. With USA rates knocking up against 7%, y2k a black hole rather then the a meltdown, small hints of stable European Growth....How long will USA sustain this worlds expansionary consumption? And how long will the FED allow this to continue? Very Interesting. The dollar chart was flat and broke under pressure: commoditiesfutures.com Euro Dollar broke upwards: commoditiesfutures.com This can't all be due to the Millennium celebration and resulting euphoria? These are the biggest single moves in some time and chart wise the dollar is vulnerable. Somethings Cooking? Chip

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2348)	1/4/2000 6:08:00 AM
From: N	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Hi Robert! Good to see you back! Here's a Euro take from ft.com, 1/4/00 Undervalued euro looks to higher ground By Tony Major in Frankfurt The euro celebrates its first year of trading dangling tantalisingly above the one-for-one level against the dollar. It has fallen more than 14 per cent in value against the US currency over the last 12 months, boosting end-of-year growth in the euro-zone and stoking fears of inflation. Concerned at the euro's weakness but reluctant to intervene in the markets, the European Central Bank has offered "verbal support" to the struggling currency. ECB board members say the currency's strengths are being underestimated by foreign exchange markets. It was briefly boosted yesterday after Wim Duisenberg ECB president, said the euro's downward trend is over and the currency has room to appreciate. His comments followed those of Christian Noyer, ECB vice-president, last week. "I have no doubt about it," said Mr Noyer. Experience proves that a currency, in the longer term, will reflect its fundamental value against other currencies. He believed this would be the case with the euro as price stability and economic growth became clearer in the euro-zone. The ECB council will meet for the first time in the new year tomorrow with all the signs pointing to a strong start to the new millennium for the euro-zone. Strong exports, buoyant domestic demand and the benefits of structural reforms - the deregulation of services and capital markets and widespread privatisation - should propel growth to well above the trend this year. Merrill Lynch, the US investment bank, is forecasting growth of between 2.8 and 3 per cent as euro-zone producers make the most of their super-competitive currency and boost their share of the global market. The Munich-based Ifo economics institute has already forecast euro-zone GDP growth of 2.9 per cent this year on the back of strong economic recovery in Germany. Merrill Lynch and Ifo are also optimistic about the inflation outlook. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate to about 1.8 per cent early this year, a result of dearer oil and weak euro. But for the year as a whole the rate of inflation should moderate to 1.3 to 1.4 per cent, still well below the 2 per cent the ECB defines as price stability. In response to strong economic growth and the temporary spike in inflation, most analysts expect the ECB to raise interest rates in the first few months of this year - probably in February or March rather than at its first meeting of the year. The ECB last raised its key refinancing rate in November, by half a percentage point to 3 per cent. Last week's M3 money supply figures, showing a faster-than-expected growth rate, have already signalled higher rates might be needed in the first quarter to combat inflationary pressures. Two scenarios now seem possible. If the euro rebounds on its own to about $1.06 in the early part of this year, economic growth and inflation are likely to remain below the levels that could trigger an aggressive ECB response. Analysts would, therefore, expect a 0.25 percentage point increase in euro-zone rates in March. However, if the euro stays weak and again tests levels below one dollar, analysts say the ECB would respond aggressively to the perceived inflation risks and raise rates 0.5 percentage points, probably in February, and then again later in the year. Whatever the outcome, after a weak start to the year, the euro is widely expected to rebound, recovering to $1.08 to $1.12 by the end of 2000 as the euro-zone economy strengthens and US economy starts to slow. Regards, Nancy