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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: N who wrote (2356)	1/4/2000 12:50:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 3536

Hi Nancy, Thanks to everyone for the welcome back and the good information in your posts. As the Euro has suddenly leapt back into the headlines, I would love to continue the discussion of its likely direction. Earlier I listed my reasons (for going long the Euro) from the perspective of Europe, but suddenly the U.S. dollar has been looking quite precarious, in and of itself. It seems very likely that the strong economy and the related Fed tightening will continue. While this benefits the dollar by strong interest rate differentials, it raises the specter of falling prices in financial markets and an ultimate slowdown in the United States - aka a hard landing. Therefore, I believe that more tightening will result in a weaker dollar not a stronger one. Since I believe that a wage pickup is likely on the horizon, I think that the possibility of several more Federal Reserve moves is strong. I haven't yet completed getting my long position the Euro. Should I wait for a pullback or should I chase strength? Is this just a Y2K relief rally or one born of the fundamentals I am mentioning? Paul, Henry or anyone's comments are welcome, as is disabusing me of any wrong notions that I currently have.